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China's slowing economic rebound sends a warning to the world. Branson's blast-off is another step toward space tourism. Sydney's lockdown is unlikely to be lifted as scheduled. Here's what you need to know.

Fading Rebound

China's V-shaped economic rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic is slowing, sending a warning to the rest of world about how durable their own recoveries will prove to be. Data on Thursday is expected to show growth eased in the second quarter to 8% from the record gain of 18.3% in the first quarter, according to a Bloomberg poll of economists. The economy was always expected to descend from the heights hit during its initial rebound and as last year's low base effect washes out. But economists say the softening has come sooner than expected, and could now ripple across the world. 

Starting Up

Asian stocks are set to start the week higher after U.S. equities chalked fresh records Friday in a broad-based rebound. The Australian dollar dipped in early trading as Sydney's worsening virus cases threaten to lengthen a lockdown. Futures rose in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong. Major U.S. benchmarks ended last week at all-time highs as investors continued to bet that global growth remains on track despite new Covid-19 variants. China's central bank cut the amount of cash most banks must hold in reserve, underpinning gains, and the government proposed new rules on companies listing overseas. Treasuries snapped an eight-session rally and the dollar dipped against major peers.

Space Success

Billionaire Richard Branson's long-awaited test flight to space, taken alongside five of his Virgin Galactic employees, bolsters the company's plan to debut tourism trips next year. The VSS Unity space plane detached from a carrier aircraft high over New Mexico and rocketed to a speed of Mach 3 on its way to an altitude more than 53 miles (86 kilometers) above the Earth. Virgin Galactic's test flight demonstrated that such trips, once the stuff of science fiction, are becoming increasingly realistic.  Later this month Amazon.com Inc. founder Jeff Bezos plans to fly on a rocket made by Blue Origin, his space venture. Both companies envision businesses catering to wealthy tourists willing to pay top dollar for a short period of weightlessness and an unforgettable view of the Earth.

Tax Timeline

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen began to put a timeline on when the Biden administration hopes Congress can take up two key portions of a global tax agreement endorsed Saturday by Group of 20 finance ministers in Venice. Speaking to the press on Sunday, Yellen declined, however, to signal whether she believes part of the plan will require a two-thirds vote in the Senate, an impossible hurdle unless Republicans come round to supporting the deal. She reiterated that she hoped Congress would approve the portion of the deal that would impose a global minimum tax rate on corporations of at least 15%.

Selling Vaccines 

Indonesia's state-owned pharmaceutical company PT Kimia Farma will start selling vaccines to the public on Monday as the country seeks to accelerate inoculations and achieve herd immunity by the end of the year. Meanwhile, Sydney's lockdown, costing some A$1 billion a week, is "highly unlikely" to be lifted as scheduled next week as virus cases continue to rise, authorities said Sunday. Plans for a travel bubble between Australia and Singapore have been pushed back to the end of 2021. In France, a key ally of President Emmanuel Macron said the nation must "live with the virus" rather than count on a new lockdown to contain the spread of a new variant of Covid-19. 

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours:

And finally, here's what Tracy's interested in today

"The bottom line is that the U.S. economy is booming, but this is now a known known and asset markets reflect it," says Morgan Stanley Strategist Michael Wilson. "What isn't so clear anymore is at what price this growth will accrue."

A key variable in that "price" is labor costs and one of the big questions facing markets now is the degree to which Covid has sparked a structural shift towards tighter labor markets and higher wages. It wouldn't be the first time that a major pandemic tilted the balance of power between workers and capital (what happened to Europe's economy after the Black Death being the famous example of this dynamic). 

All of this is to say, it's worth watching what's happening to the labor market in intense detail. To that end, on the new Odd Lots episode, we speak with Kurt Alexander, the CFO of Omni Hotels & Resorts, which operates more than 50 hotels in the U.S. He describes the difficulty in hiring workers now and what he's doing to try to attract them. Those efforts include a range of incentives for potential new employees, from working shorter and more flexible shifts to getting a set of fancy knives if you're a new culinary worker. Alexander even mentioned that they're thinking of ways to "help people with their student loans if they come work for us."

Another big question is the degree to which incentives aimed at attracting workers back into the labor force — including higher wages — actually stick around or whether they prove transitory like some other bottlenecks in the U.S. economy. Already there are signs that the worker shortage may be easing, with Alexander saying that in U.S. states that have ended the enhanced unemployment benefits started in the depths of the Covid crisis last year, Omni is seeing a big jump in job applications, although there "remain challenges." 

The full episode will be out later today and you can subscribe here.

You can follow Tracy Alloway on Twitter at @tracyalloway.

 

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