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The new Alzheimer's drug is no medical miracle

June 08, 2021

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Today's Agenda

Don't Believe the Aduhelm Hype

We're living in an age of medical miracles, with mRNA Covid vaccines being whipped up on the fly, promising more breakthroughs to come. A new drug to fight Alzheimer's would seem to fit right in. The FDA has approved it and everything.

Except the FDA made a big mistake in this case, writes Max Nisen. It based its approval of a new Biogen drug called Aduhelm — only slightly chewier than its scientific name, aducanumab, which may or may not be a Genesis album — on inconclusive data and over the objections of experts. Patients need hope, but all the FDA has done here is raise health-care costs and complicate the search for better treatments. Read the whole thing.

The Taming of the Bitcoin

"Nothing gold can stay," said Robert Frost and also Johnny Cade. Bitcoinophiles are starting to know the feeling. 

Johnny and maybe Frost were talking about the fragility of youthful innocence. Bitcoinians may soon be wistful for the end of an age in which people can extort ransoms without governments hassling them, using a currency that consumes the energy of a developed nation. To be sure, Bitcoin has other, more positive qualities, which is why governments are hurrying to clean up and co-opt it for their own ends. It's the kind of thing they've done for eons, David Fickling writes, citing the example of lotteries in 16th-century Venice. 

Even before governments roll out their inevitable Bitcoin regulations and replacements, Elaine Ou writes, the industry is already taking the hint and conforming to the kind of centralized standards Bitcoiniacs hate and fear most.    

But such is life: You either mature and conform or get stabbed by a Soc. Some of us accept aging gracefully, while others desperately grasp for more youth, which can be expensive. A Bitcoin gambler called MicroStrategy — which began life as an enterprise software company but has lately become the corporate version of an Atlantic City casino bus fueled by cigarette smoke and regret — is selling $400 million in debt so it can buy more sweet, sweet Bitcoin. It will pay off this time! MicroStrategy can feel it! These bonds, Brian Chappatta observes, will probably be a tough sell. Unless there's a loan shark inside you just waiting to run free, it may be more straightforward to simply gamble on Bitcoin yourself. Just don't forget the words of Robert Frost and Johnny Cade.

Inflation Watch! Hollerin' and Yellen 

Sometimes people leave a job but can't really quit it. Janet Yellen used to run the Interest Rate Factory, and now she runs the Money Store. But she can't stop talking about interest rates. A month ago, she said rates would have to rise "somewhat," shocking everyone who thought she should leave that business to the current guy running the Interest Rate Factory, Jay Powell. Then this weekend she did it again, saying "slightly" higher interest rates might be a good thing, actually. Shouldn't Jay Powell be angry about this? Dan Moss suggests Yellen is actually doing Powell a favor, by helping soften up markets for the inevitability of higher rates. In politics they might call this widening the Overton Window.

Some former Interest Rate Factory workers seem to think that window should be flung open in a hurry. Mervyn King warns a lack of political appetite for fighting inflation and a firehose of stimulus make inflation a bigger risk. Bill Dudley writes the Fed's approach to targeting an average rate of inflation will force it to wait too long to raise rates, which will then force it to clamp down too hard and squish the economy.    

Of course, as Noah Smith reminds us, economists quite often botch their forecasts. Let's see how it plays out.

Further Interest Rate Factory Reading: Unlike the Fed, the ECB still needs to worry about slow growth and deflation. — Marcus Ashworth 

Telltale Charts

A truly momentous global deal on corporate tax rates would hit multinationals in the stock market, writes David Fickling. That isn't happening yet. 

Further Reading

The U.S. military spends far too much on aging weapons systems and too little on researching new ones. — Bloomberg's editorial board 

Why on Earth would Congress take its August recess this year? — Jonathan Bernstein 

It's better to fight Covid misinformation with more information. — Faye Flam 

The rate of air-rage incidents is directly proportional to the gap between first class and economy. — Stephen Mihm 

Humanity must plan for how it communicates with alien life. — Mark Buchanan (Maybe don't?)

Wall Street interns need to know the job they want is stressful and harmful, emotionally and physically. — Jared Dillian 

ICYMI

Some of Colonial Pipeline's ransom was recovered.

Jeff Bezos is going to space.

The Jan. 6 insurrection has inspired an online manhunt.

Kickers

FINALLY: A "third eye" so you can walk and look at your phone.

So it begins: Plants learn to cooperate. (h/t Scott Kominers for the first two kickers)

So it begins: Microscopic animal brought back to life after being frozen for 24,000 years.

Simone Biles is superhuman. 

Notes: Please send third eyes and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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