Header Ads

Biden may be walking into a Putin trap in Geneva

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a Black Sea palace of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here.

Today's Agenda

Separated at birth?

Photographer: JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images

You're Putin Me On

James Carville may want to be reincarnated as the bond market, but this newsletter would rather come back as Vladimir Putin. That guy has everything: a nuclear arsenal, Bezosian wealth, a mostly compliant populace, ripped pecs. Sure, he has to silence dissidents and invade neighbors now and again, but you try running a crumbling petrostate without getting your hands dirty.

Even when the price of oil is down, Russia can always fall back on its other big export: internet trolling. Wreaking havoc on social media and in elections around the world can pay big dividends, up to and including a mostly compliant president of the United States.

That president's replacement, President Joe Biden, is far less chummy. Let's just say he probably won't be playing catch with any wired soccer balls in Geneva tomorrow. But all the pressure will still be on him when he and Putin meetBloomberg's editorial board writes Biden must seek common ground without pushing for breakthroughs, and assert American interests without shaming Russia's leader — a guy Biden has called a "killer" and once accused of not having a soul. Good luck!

Biden would probably rather sideline his Putin Problem indefinitely so he can focus on his far bigger China Problem, suggests Hal Brands. But Putin knows this is exactly what Biden wants and will extract a heavy price to play along. The bond market hasn't had that kind of power in a long time.

Further I-Must-Break-You Reading: U.S. internet companies must resist Putin's efforts to silence the opposition. — Eli Lake 

Economy of the Living Dead

In fact, the bond market can't even keep shaky borrowers in line anymore. In the old days, when our old LaSalle ran great and interest actually had a rate, dicey businesses got low credit ratings and paid up to borrow money. Now rates are cemented to rock bottom, the Fed buys all of the bonds, and even the iffiest credits are getting decent ratings and borrowing easily, writes Lisa Abramowicz.   

This is a good thing when you're trying to keep the economy from imploding in a pandemic. But it's not great for the long haul, warns John Authers. Keeping zombie businesses shambling along denies capital to healthier ones and deadens the recovery. At the same time, nuking all these zombies by raising rates could end the recovery. What's a Fed to do?

Norms an Endangered Species

Donald Trump smashed so many norms in his four years in office that they're still finding shards of them in the couch cushions. One very large one was the discovery this week that Trump's Justice Department tried to investigate members of Congress over alleged leaks. (Not to be confused with today's shard, the discovery that Trump pushed the DOJ to investigate his phony election-fraud claims.) This was 15 pounds of wrong in a 10-pound sack, writes Noah Feldman. For one thing, it violates the Constitution's separation of powers. The DOJ is an executive branch with no jurisdiction over lawmakers leaking stuff, which (believe it or not) is not illegal. 

But the norm-smashing seems to be catching. It wasn't too surprising to hear Mitch McConnell say a Republican Senate would block Biden from picking any Supreme Court justices in 2023 or 2024, no matter the person or circumstances. But Jonathan Bernstein points out this blanket refusal trashes not only centuries-old Senate norms but also the spirit of the Constitution. They had a good run.   

Telltale Charts

California's drought makes it harder to keep the power on without burning natural gas, Liam Denning writes. This contributes to global warming, which leads to more droughts. Rinse, repeat, burn.

The European Commission is a massive new force in the bond market and will eventually be the continent's benchmark, writes Marcus Ashworth.

Further Reading

Rather than blindly paying for Biogen's iffy Alzheimer's drug, Medicare should study its effectiveness. — Peter B. Bach and Craig Garthwaite 

The Musk-Bezos spat over a NASA lunar lander shows how Congress keeps hurting the space program. — Adam Minter 

Iran's rigged election is all about preserving the theocracy at all costs. — Bobby Ghosh 

China's Taishan nuclear incident may not be a disaster, but China's secrecy makes a disaster more likely. — David Fickling 

Exxon won't be the last boardroom win for activists with ESG priorities. — Chris Hughes 

ICYMI

It's beginning to look a lot like 2008, everywhere you go.

MacKenzie Scott keeps giving away billions.

Airbnb has a team of Winston Wolfs who make problems go away. 

Kickers

Tiny dinosaur is actually really weird lizard. (h/t Scott Kominers)

American workers are among the world's most stressed.

Humans can reproduce on Mars

How to photograph the moon.

Notes: Please send moon photos and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

 

Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.

 

No comments