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5 things to start your day

Infrastructure deal with political risks nears, crypto curbs and America's Covid resilience. 

Deal with a cost  

Three Republican senators said President Joe Biden's assurance that he isn't linking a bipartisan $579 billion infrastructure plan to a larger tax and spending bill will allow negotiations to move ahead. Yet the agreement with a group of moderate senators doesn't include many progressive priorities, in particular aggressive policies to curb climate change. All that means anxiety is rising among progressives that the president won't fulfil their aspirations for expansions of voting rights and spending on social programs.

Biden plans to begin traveling the country on Tuesday to promote the deal, with his first stop in Wisconsin, a White House official said. The goal is to build public support not only for the deal but for the social-spending and tax increases Democrats hope to include in the second piece of legislation, which would include elements of his American Families Plan.

Crypto curbs

The U.K.'s financial watchdog took one of the most significant regulatory moves to date against a crytocurrency exchange as global scrutiny of the industry hardens. Binance Markets Ltd., an affiliate of top global crypto bourse Binance, was told by the Financial Conduct Authority it has until the evening of June 30 to confirm it has removed all advertising and financial promotions, according to the authority's register. The exchange must also make clear on its website, social media channels and all other communications that it's no longer permitted to operate in the U.K.

The move had little effect on trading in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin gained on Monday, trading 6.6% higher at $34,780 as of 5:10 a.m. Eastern Time. Binance Coin is up 5% in the past 24 hours, according to pricing from CoinGecko. In other crypto news, Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego endorsed the use of Bitcoin and said his bank is on the way to accepting it, while even gold-obsessed Indians are falling in love with digital tokens.

Covid control 

The U.S. rose to the top of Bloomberg's Covid Resilience Ranking for the first time, a measure that indicates how well countries are handling the pandemic. It underscores progress on vaccinations and opening up travel routes. While Europe's resilience is rising as policy makers get their act together, the highly contagious Delta strain imperils the tourism season. Meanwhile, India's confirmed daily deaths fell below 1,000 for the first time in more than two months as the government seeks to boost vaccinations.

In other pandemic developments, Bloomberg News interviewed the last and only foreign scientist in the Wuhan lab, who said half-truths have obscured an accurate accounting of the facility's functions and activities, which were more routine than how they've been portrayed in the media.

Markets rise

Global equities were mixed as traders kept an eye on the reflation trade and the impact of highly contagious Covid strains. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed, while Japan's Topix index closed 0.2% higher. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index slipped 0.3% as travel shares slumped on tourism restrictions. S&P 500 futures pointed to little change at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.516%, oil traded at $74 a barrel and gold dropped.

Coming up... 

It's a quiet day for U.S. data, with Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for June due at 10:30 a.m. Regional Federal Reserve presidents John Williams and Tom Barkin are due to speak, as is the Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles. Herman Miller Inc. reports earnings after the bell.

What we've been reading

Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morning

There are a lot of interesting things going on in tech these days -- AI, VR, cloud computing and so on -- but the most interesting of all is tight labor markets.

Last week we got the latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey, and it was about what you would expect. The headline number was very robust, and also companies are seeing pressure in terms of labor and prices. This has been the story for several months now all around the country.

At the end of the survey, they post select comments from respondents, and these three stood out to me:

  • "With the lack of willing and able entry level workers, we are choosing to invest more in equipment and automation, which over time, should lead to our company to have a lower number of workers with a higher level of skills."
  • "Business activity has picked up and we are in need of upgrades to certain productive assets to maintain and increase capacity."
  • "We are looking for ways to automate and reduce the need for employees."

In other words, tight labor markets and difficult hiring conditions are getting companies to invest in capital assets. And bear in mind, there's still a wide expectation that labor and demand will "normalize" later this year. One can only imagine the pressure companies would feel to invest and build out their technical capacity if the current pressures were to be maintained.

We know that productivity growth in the U.S. has been mediocre -- particularly in areas of the economy that are currently facing acute stress, such as construction or parts of the service sector. When people talk about "tech" it's often from a perspective of gadgets or apps or things like that. But in terms of technology actually improving how we consume and build things, and expanding human wealth, this is the dynamic to watch.

Joe Weisenthal is an editor at Bloomberg

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