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Weird times produce a weird jobs report

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Today's Agenda

A Jobs Report Full of Surprises

One of the best things about following financial markets is watching narratives build up for months and then get exploded in a matter of seconds. You could see that in real time this morning as the government reported April jobs data.

A lot of people were convinced stimulus and vaccinations would lead to not only an immediately booming U.S. economy and sex in public bathrooms but also maybe runaway inflation, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together — real wrath-of-God-type stuff. The April jobs report was expected to advance this plotline by adding a million more people to the nation's payrolls and slashing the unemployment rate. Oops. The economy added just 266,000 jobs, and unemployment rose.  

Suddenly the story is much more complicated. You can read more of what Barry Ritholtz, Conor Sen, Karl Smith, Noah Smith and many others think about the news here. But the mere fact that we felt the need to have a cast of thousands study this one report like the wreckage of a train derailment says everything about how much it scrambled reality. 

Certainly a lot of investors' plans were scrapped today, writes Brian ChappattaStocks naturally settled on taking the news as a positive. More free money forever! Bonds rallied hard, but then gave it all back, resuming a stance already consistent with economic skepticism. But it may be a while before a new narrative forms.

That's if it forms at all; one of the worst things about following financial markets is watching shocking data change zero minds. Today's report had just enough evidence to confirm everybody's priors for at least another month. Think people aren't working because they'd rather sit home and get that extra unemployment money? There was some evidence for and against that. While we wait for better answers, though, we'll need to keep supporting the economy, writes Michael R. Strain. This is turning out to be a lot messier than many of us expected. It always is.

Hey, Maybe We Should Study the Mysteries of the Universe

I don't know, maybe it's because I read a lot of science fiction, but I kind of thought that thing a month ago where scientists said they'd watched a particle defy the known laws of physics would have caused a bit more of a fuss. As Bloomberg LP founder Mike Bloomberg writes, this discovery "might hold the key to explaining the deepest mysteries of the universe." Oh, is that all? Why aren't we talking about this more? I know we're all buried in our phones, but come on. Mike points out this is a reminder of just how badly underfunded scientific research is in this country right now. Here's this freaky particle doing freaky things, which could either be the fruit of the Tree of Forbidden Knowledge or at least a way to make cell-phone calls clearer. This is America's big chance to take advantage of it. Read the whole thing.

Bonus Miracle-of-Science Reading: Here are four stories to watch this year, including the possibility of defeating malaria. — Tyler Cowen 

Europe Finally Gets Its Pandemic Act Together

It took Europe long enough, but it's finally getting Covid vaccine shots in people's arms at a decent clip, writes Lionel Laurent. In fact, with the recent plunge in U.S. vaccinations and the U.K. flat, Europe is actually matching the pace of those nations and may surpass them soon.

This goes a long way toward getting the world immunized, but far bigger steps still must be taken in the developing world. As we've written, this will involve more than just waiving some vaccine patents. Countries need equipment and expertise to make the shots. To that end, Tim O'Brien suggests the West launch a new global Operation Warp Speed, matching public incentives with private capital and know-how. It worked for the U.S. and should work for India and beyond.

Further Pandemic Reading:

Telltale Charts

Pandora's lab-grown diamonds are cheaper and more ethical and will appeal to a certain set of buyers, writes Andrea Felsted. Luxury shoppers still prefer the real thing, but jewelers can't ignore the trend. 

Further Reading

Congress must take away the armed forces' ability to submit wish lists that defy budgets set by civilian leadership. — Bloomberg's editorial board 

The GOP's 100% dedication to obstructionism helps explain why it can't govern when it gets power. — Jonathan Bernstein 

China's population decline could be a chance to build a better economy for families and women. — Adam Minter 

Barclays may have won its activist battle, but investors should still want more scrutiny. — Elisa Martinuzzi 

Too many ESG funds are basically S&P 500 index trackers, except more expensive. — Aaron Brown 

Yale's David Swensen was as much of an investment trendsetter as Warren Buffett. — John Authers 

ICYMI

The Gates divorce is a seismic event for philanthropy.

Vancouver is the anti-Asian crime capital of North America.

Dogecoin traders will watch Elon Musk host "SNL" this weekend because markets are efficient.

Kickers

Aww, it's a baby Mothra. (h/t Alistair Lowe)

California condors declare war on a house. (h/t Mike Smedley)

Listen to the helicopter on Mars

Wanted: nap reviewers

Notes: Please send helicopters and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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