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Bill and Melinda Gates to divorce

Bill and Melinda Gates to divorce after 27 years. Warren Buffett names a successor. Virus variants overwhelm countries from Thailand to Trinidad. Here's what you need to know to start your day.

Virus Waves

It's not just India. Fierce new Covid-19 waves are enveloping developing countries around the world. Laos and Thailand, Bhutan and Nepal, Fiji and Trinidad & Tobago are all suffering, largely because of more contagious virus variants, although complacency and lack of resources to contain the spread have also been cited as reasons. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is resisting pressure to lock down as deaths continue to rise, while Singapore has deferred non-urgent surgeries amid its worst flare-up in months. Elsewhere the U.S. administration will support Pfizer's move to begin exporting U.S.-made doses of its coronavirus vaccine, and the EU plans to reopen its borders after months of pandemic-induced restrictions, possibly as soon as the end of May.

Opening Up

Asian stocks look set to open modestly higher after a muted session on Wall Street, where technology giants weighed on the market. The dollar dropped with Treasury yields. Futures pointed higher in Australia and Hong Kong. Trading will be limited with Japan and China among markets closed for holidays. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped back to around 1.6% as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the economic recovery remains patchy. Commodities advanced, with silver leading gains in precious metals. Copper and oil climbed more than 1% amid broad rallies in energy and material stocks.

Bill and Melinda Gates Split

Bill and Melinda Gates have made the decision to divorce after 27 years of marriage, saying in a tweet: "We no longer believe we can grow together as a couple." In the statement posted in Twitter they wrote: "After a great deal of thought and a lot of work on our relationship, we have made the decision to end our marriage. We have raised three incredible children and built a foundation that works all over the world to enable all people to lead healthy, productive lives." They'll continue to work together at the massive philanthropic foundation they built to improve global health, combat climate change and bolster U.S. education, the pair said in the statement. Bill Gates, 65, is the world's fourth richest person, while Melinda, 56, has become an outspoken advocate on global health and equality for women in her role co-running the foundation.

Buffett Backup 

Warren Buffett has named a successor. Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman Greg Abel will take over the $630 billion business when America's most renowned investor steps down — although there's been no indication his departure is imminent. The 58-year-old's more than two-decade track record at the conglomerate includes high-profile dealmaking and overseeing its sprawling non-insurance businesses. His demeanor is more formal than Buffett's, but Abel's formality and level of insight into Berkshire's businesses could give investors a useful level of transparency, said Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward D. Jones. Read more about Berkshire's annual meeting here

Crypto Versus Crypto

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether will co-exist "for a while" with more-restrictive digital coins such as the one issued by China's central bank, according to Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance. Digital assets issued by central banks won't offer the same freedom of use and won't have a supply cap in place, said Zhao, who runs the world's largest Bitcoin exchange. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's domination of total cryptocurrency market value is declining after next-biggest rival Ether reached the $3,000 milestone. Bitcoin now accounts for about 46% of total crypto market value, down from roughly 70% at the start of the year, and Ether makes up 15%, according to tracker CoinGecko.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours:

And finally, here's what Tracy's interested in today

How extreme is the shortage in components like semiconductors and available transport? The latest purchasing managers' indexes from IHS Markit have some pretty stark stats when it comes to Europe and the U.S. On the one hand, the scramble for goods has led to a jump in purchasing activity as companies try to replenish their stockpiles. On the other hand, production could have been higher if it weren't for the supply shortages, with average lead times lengthening by a record amount for both the U.S. and Europe.

The reports themselves are full of interesting anecdotes about what's going on:

From the Eurozone report:

"Production growth was limited to some degree by capacity constraints, in turn partly the result of stretched supply chains. April saw average lead times for the delivery of inputs deteriorate to a degree unsurpassed in the survey's history. A mismatch of supply and demand, allied with ongoing challenges in transportation networks, especially for sea freight, were widely reported as causal factors.

Product shortages subsequently helped to drive input prices up at a rate beaten only once in the survey history (February 2011). Chemicals, metals, and plastics were amongst those inputs reported to be up in price and this led, alongside growing confidence in the outlook, to companies raising their own charges to the strongest degree in over 18 years of data availability.

Fearful of ongoing shortages in supply, and faced with rising output and order requirements, manufacturers increased their purchasing activity at an unprecedented rate. Firms also chose to utilise their inventories of purchases wherever possible, with stocks being depleted for a twenty-seventh successive month. A drop in stocks of finished goods was also reported as firms struggled to meet rising order book requirements. The decline in inventories was the greatest since December 2009."

And from the U.S. report:

"Supply chain delays worsened, however, running at the highest yet recorded by the survey, choking production at many companies. Worst affected were consumer-facing firms, where a lack of inputs has caused production to fall below order book growth to a record extent in over the past two months as household spending leapt higher.

April data signalled another marked monthly deterioration in vendor performance across the goods-producing sector, with lead times lengthening to the greatest extent on record. Alongside raw material shortages and pressure on supplier capacity, firms linked delays to ongoing disruption to transportation, including port congestion.

Input costs rose rapidly in April, with the rate of inflation quickening to the sharpest since July 2008. The increase was widely attributed to material shortages and greater transportation costs."

It's worth asking how the short squeeze in everything impacts the real economy. While it's clear that supply chain shortages and logistics snarls are hampering companies' ability to churn out enough products to meet demand, longer lead times and orders booked further and further into the future mean there's a decent demand floor that could give firms confidence to invest in upgrading capacity. Just a year after the Covid-19 pandemic sparked a huge wave of economic uncertainty, supply squeezes might actually be a "nice" problem to have.

You can follow Tracy Alloway on Twitter at @tracyalloway.

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