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A massive pipeline hack is just a taste of what’s to come 

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Today's Agenda

Sean Astin, who is now also in this newsletter for some reason.

Photographer: Kurt Vinion/Getty Images Europe

Don't Sleep on That Pipeline Attack

The Northeast blackout of 2003 was memorable for many reasons, some of them positive, especially in pandemic-tinged hindsight. All of New York City was out in the streets together, sweating, walking, getting free water bottles from bars. At one point my own wandering exodus pack randomly included the actor Sean Astin for some reason. It was kind of a blast.

But the blackout sticks in the memory for a darker reason, too: There was a brief moment, just after everybody realized the power was out from Boston to Toronto, that people thought it must be another terrorist attack. Al-Qaeda had hit us again, this time by hacking our grid. We soon realized that, no, it was the usual stuff — shaky networks, dumbness, trees — just on an epic scale. But it was a reminder of how easily a hacker could sabotage our infrastructure and cripple our economy.

The Colonial Pipeline Hack of 2021 will probably not be as memorable. As Liam Denning points out, there should be enough fuel to keep us out of gas lines, as long as we keep our heads and don't start hoarding. Fortunately there's no recent history of our doing such things. Knowing the pipeline will be fully restored this week should help.

But you can imagine the panic if, say, a bunch of petrostates had gotten together and declared the new price of oil was 1 million Dogecoins a barrel or something. This is really not much different, Liam Denning writes in a second column: Your parents' Arab oil embargo is Gen Z's pipeline hack. Or grid hack. Or why not both? 

Whatever it is, the next cyberattack could well be much less forgettable, and in a bad way. We're not prepared. And our companies and government officials just keep letting us know — often simply by clamming up  — that they really have no idea what they're up against or how to fight it, writes Tim O'Brien. This is unsustainable.

The only good thing about such a disaster would be its predictability. If history is any guide, alas, the next global catastrophe will be something almost nobody sees coming, warns Niall Ferguson (although you can bet there's at least one guy who has been predicting it every year for 20 years). At that point it will behoove us to not make matters far worse by responding badly, as we so often do (see Pandemic, Coronavirus). Let's strive to be the people handing out free water and not the ones hoarding wipes.

Further Vulnerability Reading: Much of the West outsources oil refining to other countries, leaving them exposed to shortages. — Julian Lee 

Further Thoughts on That Jobs Report

Speaking of things nobody saw coming: that jobs report. After careful consideration, it seems likely the problem is one of labor supply, not demand, writes Mohamed El-Erian. Probably! Who knows, really? We still need a lot more data. But if the problem is supply and not demand, then that will significantly change how the Fed reacts, Mohamed writes. Trying to stimulate more demand may be self-defeating in such a case.

In fact, traders aren't braced for the chance the Fed could eventually jack its target rate up to 4.25% or more, warns Bill Dudley. He bases this on history and the Fed's ideas of what a "neutral" rate should be.

Such tightening is still a long way off, though, especially if the economy isn't quite as hale as we thought it was last Thursday. Conor Sen warns that a slower pace of hiring, for whatever reason, would also slow down the economy. Dreams of 7% GDP growth this year may be dashed. 

Wait, Why Do We Want a Population Boom Again?

We've written a few times about how population growth is slowing in the U.S., China and other places. And we've mainly discussed this as a bad thing. Without population growth, how will economies expand infinitely and fulfill the promise of Dogecoin? Amanda Little suggests we hold off on demands for a baby boom, though. For one thing, we can't adequately feed the people we have now. And climate change is making global food insecurity far worse. Science will figure this out eventually. But it might be a good idea to have fewer babies while we wait. Even if Bennifer is back together.

Telltale Charts

The U.K.'s new foreign-travel restrictions are a big blow to some big tourist destinations including Spain and Greece, writes Andrea Felsted

Further Reading

In defenestrating Liz Cheney, the GOP will surrender to Donald Trump's insanity. — Bloomberg's editorial board 

We can retreat from Afghanistan without disaster, but not Taiwan. — Hal Brands 

Wall Street seems to have the right idea about remote work in banking; it may be impossible to maintain. — Elisa Martinuzzi 

Corporate management still has too much influence over auditors. Gary Gensler needs to tighten up the regs. — Chris Hughes 

Horse racing has a drug problem. — Tim O'Brien 

The personality traits that helped most during lockdowns might surprise you. Or, why Gwyneth ate bread. — Andreas Kluth 

Here are five things moms gained during the pandemic they shouldn't have to give up. — Kara Alaimo 

ICYMI

How to quit your job.

NBC is ditching the Golden Globes.

Jeff Bezos to build $500 million yacht.

Kickers

A rare calico lobster was rescued from Red Lobster

Bees have been trained to identify Covid infections. (h/t Ellen Kominers for the first two kickers)

Worm has 100 butts that each grow eyes and brains.

Some people never want to stop wearing masks.

Notes: Please send lobsters and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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