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5 things to start your day

Biden's tax plans, it's PMI day, and quarantine-free travel.

15%  

The U.S. has proposed a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15% as negotiators seek to have an international agreement in place by the middle of this year. The proposed rate is below the 21% level the Biden administration is targeting for U.S. companies' foreign income. There are other tax moves afoot in the U.S., with proposals to strengthen compliance including a requirement to report cryptocurrency transfers of over $10,000 to the IRS. 

PMI day

There was good economic news in this morning's survey data for the euro area and the U.K. A rebound in services helped push the May composite Purchasing Managers Index for the euro area to 56.9, with factories increasingly seeing supply shortages curbing production levels. In the U.K., PMIs hit the highest level since the survey began in 1998 and retail sales surged. U.S. PMI data is published at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time. 

Vaccine, travel

The European Union moved forward with a plan for EU-wide vaccination certificates, after announcing the bloc will reopen for quarantine-free travel from countries deemed safe. Globally more than 1.57 billion vaccine shots have now been administered, with the U.S. total at 279 million. While India is seeing the number of new cases fall, the country is suffering some of the worst secondary effects from the virus, with a fungal infection reaching epidemic proportions

Markets rise

The better-than-expected economic data is helping stocks finish a volatile week on a positive note. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4% while Japan's Topix index closed 0.4% higher. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index had gained 0.5% by 5:50 a.m., with all but two industry sectors in the green. S&P 500 futures pointed to a small rise at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.628%, oil rose and gold was higher. 

Coming up... 

U.S. April existing home sales data is at 10:00 a.m. and the latest Baker Hughes rig count is at 1:00 p.m. There are four regional Fed presidents speaking later. President Joe Biden meets with South Korea's Moon Jae-in. Deere & Co., VF Corp. and Foot Locker Inc. are among the companies reporting results. Apple Inc. CEO Tim Cook will take the stand today in Epic Games Inc.'s case against the App Store. 

What we've been reading

Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Emily's interested in this morning

For a while there, shorting core European government bonds was the new widow-maker trade. Not anymore.

Europe is taking the lead in the great government bond selloff that swept the world earlier this year. As yields in the U.S. steadied from a rapid ascent in the first quarter, those on German Bunds continue to climb. Appetite for German debt has soured notably, judging by recent auctions. Germany's sale of 10-year bonds this week met the coolest reception in over a year.

Mounting expectations for a pullback in that support, and soon, are at least partly to blame for the rout. It's getting harder for the European Central Bank to justify pandemic-era policy settings as the vaccine rollout picks up, along with economic data. So far it's stuck to the global central bankers' script that the recent boost in price pressures is temporary. But judging by the more hawkish comments from the head of Germany's central bank, Jens Weidmann, it may be harder to ignore consumer prices heading above target in the country that's close to its centenary of hyperinflation.

This handing of the recovery/reflation baton to Europe has driven a rotation of sorts among investors in the world's major sovereign markets. Kellie Wood, fixed income portfolio manager at Schroder Investment Management, is among those who've shifted their underweight positions across the pond, from the U.S. to the U.K. and Europe. "The ECB is going to be at a point where yields are moving up alongside very healthy growth and inflation outcomes, which we have not seen in Europe for decades and decades," she said.

Follow Bloomberg's Emily Barrett at @notthatECB
 

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