Who blinks first?

Follow Us Get the newsletter The first talks on Iran's nuclear program involving the U.S. since Joe Biden became president will be complicated by the fact Tehran's diplomats refuse to speak directly to the Americans. The meeting in Vienna starting today of key parties to the 2015 nuclear deal — including Russia, China, France, Germany, the U.K., and the European Union — feels a little like kids in a schoolyard as a result. The other countries will essentially have to whisper in the ear of Iran and the U.S. and pass notes between them. That's even as the Iran issue becomes ever more pressing, not just for Tehran itself but for regional tensions with Israel and Saudi Arabia, and for the war in Yemen. Iran says in order for it to scale back its breaches of the 2015 deal it needs the U.S. to first remove all sanctions imposed by Donald Trump, who pulled America out of the accord. The Biden White House says it can't make any "unilateral gestures" and requires Tehran to start adhering to the agreement. Each side expects the other to do something first, and yet neither is willing to take that initial step. The problem is sequencing — of doing something that doesn't cause them to lose face. Biden knows there is no domestic political upside in being seen to cater to Tehran. Iran, with its struggling economy, is careering toward elections in June that could see hardliners regain the upper hand. That leaves the Europeans, Russia and China with the task of working behind the scenes to try and navigate some way forward, or at least no further steps backward. — Rosalind Mathieson A wall mural outside the former U.S. embassy in Tehran in August 2018. Photographer: Ali Mohammadi/Bloomberg Check out all our biggest stories on the Bloomberg Politics web page here and tell us how we're doing or what we're missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net. Global Headlines Fast track | Biden's economic agenda received a potential lift with a decision on procedure by the top Senate rules adviser that may let the Democrats pass more legislation this year with no Republican support. The reconciliation process, used to approve the $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill, could open the door to a fiscal package that includes some of the president's infrastructure plan without facing a filibuster requiring 60 votes to overcome. The tax plan Biden laid out last week will remove many of the tools that allowed technology and pharmaceutical companies to pay low rates for years. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen outlined the case for a harmonized corporate tax rate across the world's major economies. Staying away | North Korea won't take part in the Tokyo Olympics, state media reported, potentially making it the first country to skip the event due to the pandemic. The Games in long-time adversary Japan were a chance for Kim Jong Un's isolated regime to engage with the outside world, but Kim has imposed strict measures to stop the virus entering the nation. China urged Japan to steer clear of "internal issues" including Xinjiang as Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga prepares to meet Biden this month. Russia has slowed the authorization of a Chinese Covid-19 vaccine, the only foreign inoculation in domestic testing, to rely on homegrown shots. Health at risk | Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny is in a prison infirmary with a respiratory infection after reporting a severe cough and fever, according to the Izvestia newspaper. The Kremlin critic has also lost 13 kilograms (29 pounds) since starting a hunger strike last week to demand outside medical treatment for acute back and leg pains, his lawyer said. Russian officials say he's getting adequate care. Navalny inside a glass cell during a court hearing in Moscow on Feb. 20. Photographer: Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP/Getty Images Hot chips | A supply crunch in a handful of seemingly mundane parts, such as power management chips and a $1 display driver, has tipped the $450 billion semiconductor industry into a crisis that's rippling through the global economy. Surging demand has led to shortages and rising costs, affecting goods ranging from TVs and laptops to cars and airplanes. Money making | Even as cryptocurrencies steadily gain support on Wall Street, they're still regarded by regulators as a tool for criminals to conceal shady transactions, Joe Light reports. That's creating a potentially lucrative opportunity for new groups in Washington lobbying for digital currencies. Singapore again warned the public about the risks of trading cryptocurrencies, a market that is small but has surged in the city-state over the past year. What to Watch New Zealand agreed to open a quarantine-free travel corridor with Australia on April 19, a major boost for the ailing tourism sector. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was tapped to try to form Israel's next government after a March election failed to give him or his opponents a clear path to building a coalition. China's central bank asked the nation's major lenders to curtail loan growth for the rest of this year after a surge in the first two months stoked bubble risks, sources said. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel visit Turkey today for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on issues including migration and customs union deals. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi is in Libya today on his inaugural foreign trip as premier to meet with the country's first unified government in about seven years. And finally ... As hospitals in the Philippine capital of Manila reach capacity from a surge in coronavirus cases, increasingly desperate Filipinos are stocking up on oxygen tanks and touting unapproved medications. Daily infections hit a record last week in the nation, where one in nearly five Covid-19 tests is positive. The Philippines risks a "humanitarian crisis that will overwhelm the country and wipe out families" unless the government steps up testing, tracing and treatment, one opposition senator warned. A worker disinfects a street in Manila on March 26. Photographer: Ezra Acayan/Getty Images AsiaPac     Like Balance of Power? Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters.   You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. Unsubscribe | Bloomberg.com | Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022