| Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. On Wednesday, President Joe Biden will be addressing a joint session of Congress. It's not technically a State of the Union speech, but it's the functional equivalent of one. So it's a good time to refresh what we know about this type of event.
To be clear, presidential speeches don't affect presidential popularity. Nor do they change public opinion about policy questions. At best, they elevate the things that the president emphasizes on the policy agenda, and even that will take more than one speech to accomplish. As far as convincing members of Congress to do what the president wants? No, that doesn't work either. At best there's an agenda-setting effect, with Congress taking note of signals about the president's own intentions and priorities.
One extra caution: "Instant" polls taken immediately after a presidential speech, with results reported that same night, have gone out of fashion. Should we see them, however, it's safe to ignore them. The people who respond are those who watched the speech, and we already know that the people who tune in will overwhelmingly be Biden supporters and likely to approve of what they hear.
None of this means that the event is meaningless.
First, the speech is a big deal within the White House and across policy networks. It serves as a deadline for important decisions, forcing presidents to choose among options instead of dragging them out further. And it matters to policy advocates — interest groups, members of Congress, other party actors — who push to include "their" special issue in a high-profile event, thus signaling (for example) that the president intends to follow through on a campaign promise.
The White House, in turn, may have requests for those various political players. Sometimes it's for public support; sometimes, it's a request to a friendly group that might oppose a presidential idea to hold off on criticizing it. Part of running a professional White House is anticipating the likely range of reactions to a proposal and working to stay ahead of them.
Second, high-profile speeches are an important part of the process of representation. Elected officials govern with the promises they made in mind, and they explain their actions to constituents in the context of those promises. So expect Biden to once again express empathy and emphasize unity (whether he uses that word or not), and to advocate for his policy plans with references to those campaign themes. Remember, campaign promises aren't just about policy; they're also about how a politician will govern and act in office.
And third, the event itself is important. For that, please see Matt Glassman's wonderful explanation of the symbolism of the State of the Union speech. It wouldn't be surprising if this edition of the speech — with memories still fresh of a mob attacking the Capitol and of a defeated president who never even pretended to respect democratic symbolism — ends up being particularly important just by being close to ordinary.
1. Matthew Green at Mischiefs of Faction on John Boehner.
2. Asfandyar Mir at the Monkey Cage on the U.S. exit from Afghanistan.
3. Dan Drezner on the advantages of trade.
4. Andrew Gelman on measuring the damage the coronavirus has caused.
5. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Clara Ferreira Marques on China and the Oscars.
6. And Greg Sargent on the difficult questions Democrats will soon need to answer.
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