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The trouble with Americans is there aren’t enough of them

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Today's Agenda

Turns Out We Could Use That Population Bomb

For the past few decades, the scary story economists have used to keep each other awake at economist campouts is the story of Japan. Its stagnant population and deflation are scarier in these tellings than finding a hook on your car-door handle after you rush home from Makeout Point.  

But America just keeps getting more Japan-like. The Fed has been trying to make inflation happen for years with no luck. And America's population growth has stagnated to levels not seen since the Depression, when people were too busy building Hoovervilles to make babies. Is this really as scary as it sounds? Matthew Yglesias suggests it is. He writes the U.S. must triple in size if we're to support the lifestyle to which we've all  grown accustomed. Otherwise we'll spend all our dollars supporting a ballooning cohort of retirees.

Matt's prescription is reforming immigration and making it easier for people to have babies. President Joe Biden's American Families Plan, unveiled today, is a $1.8 trillion bet on the baby-having part. Some of it may even have bipartisan support. Who doesn't love babies? The immigration part is much knottier (see: American politics). And Tyler Cowen argues paying for the American Families Plan by jacking up the capital gains tax rate will signal the U.S. doesn't like wealth, discouraging immigrants.

We could also encourage family-forming (not to be confused by babby-forming) by making housing more affordable in cities where most of the jobs are. Ramesh Ponnuru suggests the main hurdle to this is the liberal voters who live in and run these cities catching a severe case of the NIMBYs whenever you talk about building more housing near them.

And it won't make a big dent in our population, but it's just morally right to let the thousands of Afghan interpreters and other helpers into the U.S. when our troops leave Afghanistan, writes Bloomberg's editorial board. Our visa and refugee process is too onerous for these people, who face mortal danger from the Taliban while they wait. That is truly scary.

The Case of the Cursing Cheerleader

As we all know, the Supreme Court has a long tradition of adjudicating social-media controversies, going back to Felix Frankfurter's doctrine of "Bro! You just posted cringe!" established in Instagram vs. Your Dad. Next on its docket is the case of a high-school cheerleader who expressed her lack of commitment to Sparkle Motion in an expletive-laden rant on Snapchat. This brought down on her the wrath of her school, which she sued, arguing her free-speech rights had been violated. The case highlights how the old left-right battle lines over speech have shifted lately, Noah Feldman writes. The ACLU is siding with conservatives to protect a cheerleader's right to encourage her school to "Gimme an F! Gimme a U!" et cetera, as the Founding Fathers intended. But the Biden administration sides with the school, fearing a loss here would make it harder to stop bullying and hate speech.

Whatever the outcome, it should get plenty of airtime on Fox News and other right-wing media outlets, which keep fans hooked on an endless supply of sweet, sweet outrage. James Carville recently warned there's political power in this perpetual controversy machine, urging Democrats to stop feeding it with wokeness. Jonathan Bernstein points out the Dems haven't exactly suffered politically in the Peak Woke era. It's almost as if normal voters aren't on the same wavelength with those suffering from Fox poisoning.

SALT Talks: New Jersey Edition 

Biden's infrastructure plan, meanwhile, is threatened not just by Republicans but also by Democrats from high-tax states. They insist he do away with the 2017 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions or they'll take their lacrosse ball and go home. This cap has mainly hurt millionaires, but Alexis Leondis points out it has also hurt some legitimately middle-class people, when you adjust for how pricey these areas are. Her solution is to not remove the cap but boost it to $30,000 for married filers. This would solve a bunch of problems, including easing the burden on middle-class taxpayers, and maybe even encourage more babby-forming in these areas.

Further Infrastructure Plan Reading: Biden should remember the Foxconn debacle's lesson about public-private partnerships. — Tim O'Brien

Telltale Charts

Pot continuing to remain illegal in the U.S. is a big problem for American pot stocks, writes Tara Lachapelle. That may be about to change. 

Agricultural commodity prices are soaring, but that probably won't last, writes David Fickling

Further Reading

One upside of the semiconductor shortage is it's forcing automakers to ditch models nobody really wants. — Anjani Trivedi 

Sony's numbers suggest the PS5 isn't generating follow-on sales the way it should. — Tim Culpan 

Deutsche Bank is making money again, but still in the same old way. It may not be safe or sustainable. — Elisa Martinuzzi 

Mario Draghi needs the ECB's help keeping borrowing costs low as he spends billions in stimulus. — Marcus Ashworth 

Both the U.K. and EU get the AstraZeneca vaccine wrong; the U.K. is too reckless, while the EU is too cautious. — Sam Fazeli 

Beijing is pushing tycoons out of power in Hong Kong. They haven't done any good lately anyway. — Matthew Brooker 

It's good, actually, that Elon Musk makes money for Tesla by manipulating the price of Bitcoin. — Matt Levine 

ICYMI

WFH is saving Google $1 billion a year.

Walmart is fighting a $15 minimum wage.

Drones are delivering Girl Scout cookies.

Kickers

New Star Wars watches dropped. (h/t Ellen Kominers)

"Creativity genes" helped humans conquer the world.

The "Ed Balls" tweet turns 10.

RIP, Michael Collins.

Notes: Please send Star Wars watches and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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