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China will drive global economic growth in the coming years, the IMF says. Credit Suisse is careening from crisis to crisis. Nobody knows whether Covid-19 variants are driving India's record surge in infections. Here's what people in markets are talking about today. 

Driver's Seat

China will drive global economic growth in the coming years as the world recovers from the pandemic that's killed 2.9 million people, the International Monetary Fund predicts. China will contribute more than one-fifth of the total increase in the world's gross domestic product in the five years through 2026, according to Bloomberg calculations based on IMF forecasts. Global GDP is expected to rise by more than $28 trillion to $122 trillion over that period, after falling $2.8 trillion last year in the biggest peacetime shock to output since the Great Depression. China's resilience to the coronavirus and its higher-yielding assets have attracted investors from around the world — but its epic battle with capital flows is getting more intense than ever. 

Calm Open

Asia stocks are headed for a calm open as a global rally that drove stocks to all-time highs paused. Futures were little changed in Australia and edged lower in Japan. Volume on U.S. exchanges slipped below 10 billion shares for the first time this year. Treasuries climbed and oil rose as the International Monetary Fund upgraded its global growth forecast for the second time in three months, countering concerns about flare-ups in Covid-19 infections in parts of the world. Meanwhile, investors are bracing for Asia's worst stock market to fall even further.

Scandal Toll

In an era of prosperity for investment banks, Credit Suisse is careening from one crisis to another, putting the Swiss bank under mounting pressure to persuade shareholders and clients it can put its house in order. The latest headache is a $4.7 billion writedown tied to billionaire investor Bill Hwang's trading blowout. The staggering hit from the Archegos fallout prompted sweeping management changes at the bank Tuesday and cast fresh doubt on its checkered record of managing risks. Credit Suisse's investment bank head and chief risk officer were among more than half a dozen executives replaced. Separately, a Qatari royal has also been caught up in the Swiss bank's troubled supply-chain finance funds. 

India Surge

India is facing a record surge of Covid-19 infections, and the country's failure to quickly examine samples for new variants risks making its battle harder. Scientists are warning that delays could damage everything from vaccine efficacy to effective hospital treatments. India crossed 100,000 new daily infections on Sunday, a resurgence in cases that could hurt nascent growth in Asia's third-largest economy. Meanwhile Brazil is recording 4,000 daily Covid-19 deaths for the first time. But Australian and New Zealand have agreed to a quarantine-free travel bubble.

Whale's Warning

The cryptocurrency entrepreneur who spent more than $69 million for a piece of digital art has a message for speculative buyers of non-fungible tokens: Be prepared to lose your money. Vignesh Sundaresan, also known by the online moniker MetaKovan, vaulted into the spotlight last month after paying a record-breaking sum for the NFT of Beeple's "Everydays: The First 5,000 Days." As Sundaresan tells it, his motivation wasn't to make money but to support the artist and showcase the technology. Average prices for NFTs tracked by Nonfungible.com tumbled almost 70% from a peak in February through early April.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours:

And finally, here's what Cormac's interested in today

In a sign of increasing investor caution toward the stock market, speculators have been pulling back their bets for lower volatility in U.S. shares. Net short non-commercial positions in Cboe Volatility Index futures have shrunk for six straight weeks to their lowest since the beginning of December. Meanwhile, the number of shares outstanding on the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF — a gauge of demand for bets on the leveraged volatility fund — is up almost 90% this year.

The U.S. equity volatility benchmark fell to its lowest in over a year on Thursday as the S&P 500 Index closed at a record high. The futures and ETF signals suggest some traders are increasingly concerned that volatility may soon return amid worries about stretched valuations and signs of froth in risk assets.

Cormac Mullen is a Cross-Asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

 

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