Dropouts

MON, APR 19, 2021

YOUR AFTERNOON NEWS UPDATE AND MARKET ACTION FROM CNBC

AS OF MON, APR 19, 2021 • 11:20 ET

DJIA		34052.67
		-0.43%	-148.00

S&P 500		4168.68
		-0.40%	-16.79

NASDAQ		13942.56
		-0.78%	-109.78

EDITOR'S NOTE

Helllooooooo again!!

Sometimes people who read this newsletter ask me why I always say "see you at 1 p.m." at the end. So just to be clear: that's when I'm on the telly. Like today, back for the first time from maternity leave. It's weird and nice at the same time.

And there is so much to get caught up on! Among the topics we're hitting today: Bitcoin's selloff, the $5 trillion stockpile of savings, labor force shortages, Peloton's treadmill problems--oh, and this awful Tesla story we're still learning about. And don't miss Mario Gabelli in Power Lunch. And speaking of "power lunches"--they're back! Lots to discuss.

But underpinning all of this is one overarching theme: is inflation here to stay, or not? If the answer is yes, like Larry Lindsey will argue today, that implies a multitude of different things--higher inequality, a smaller labor force (more dropouts), higher bond yields (if the Fed isn't super proactive about it), lower stock prices, a higher taxpayer burden, a lower dollar, etc.

If you think the answer is no, you're in more of the David Zervos camp. (Zervos will be on soon to make his case.) Zervos, and others like Komal Sri-Kumar--and the Fed itself, for now--think these inflation pressures will pass, that bond yields will be contained, the dollar will largely go sideways, the labor force may even rebound, stocks can continue to do well, and so forth.

Where does that leave Bitcoin? As a proxy for risk in the market, which is itself a proxy for which of these narratives is playing out. "I think the direction of Bitcoin is a good bellwether on the risk appetite of the broader markets and view it from that lens more than anything else," wrote Peter Boockvar this morning.

Which should also warn anyone counting on Bitcoin to perform well if inflation takes off (scenario A above) to think twice about that rationale.

Like I said, lots to discuss. See you at 1 p.m! :-)

Kelly