China is losing the soft war but could win the hard one

Follow Us Get the newsletter This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an RV park of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. Today's Agenda China's losing the soft cold war but could still win the hard one. Biden is not coming for your burger. Health care has a supply problem. Oil prices aren't getting that rebound. Cold War, Hard and Soft A cold war has hard and soft components, like an egg or the SAT. Last night the Oscars were a stark reminder the U.S. is winning the soft-power part of the war. The hard part could be a much different story. "Nomadland," a very good, very depressing movie about premature retirees living in vans, won best picture. Its director, Chloé Zhao, a Chinese national, won best director. (Frances McDormand, a national treasure, won best actress for her part in the movie. Also, if you didn't find the movie quite depressing enough, please read Jessica Bruder's very good book.)  This would seem to be a huge PR victory for China, given Zhao's place of birth and the movie's grim critique of American late capitalism. But one time eight years ago Zhao criticized China as having "lies everywhere." That pretty much describes any country and is arguably preferable to "seniors barely surviving in vans everywhere." But Zhao remains persona non grata in China, so its people and media weren't allowed to mention her or her win. This is a terrible look for Beijing, Clara Ferreira Marques writes, especially contrasted with how American media was totally fine letting Zhao make, release and win boatloads of awards for her critique of America. This is how you lose the soft-power war. Ah, but then there's that hard-power part, where things get exponentially more difficult for the U.S. We've written about how Taiwan is the issue most likely to turn the cold war hot. James Stavridis agrees, but points out there are three other very specific ways a naval war between China and the U.S. could erupt and spread. Apparently in those cases flinging Oscar statuettes won't do the trick.   Further New Cold War Reading: We must press Russia not to kill dissidents but can't expect quick results. — Hal Brands  Paid Post The power of PayPal online, now in person. Give your small business an easy way to accept touch-free, in-person payments. Create a unique QR code with the PayPal app and display it on your device or as a printout in store. Download the app.  Customer must have PayPal account and app to pay. PayPal GOP Vs. Bidenomics Who among us will ever forget where we were the day President Joe Biden took our cheeseburgers away? It's a trick question: Biden is not taking our cheeseburgers away. Nor is he taking our T-bones, ribeyes, hot dogs or any other beef products away. (Nor our beef livers. Sorry, 6-year-old me.) You might be confused if you follow conservatives on Twitter or Fox News who claim Biden wants to declare himself Beef Miser as part of his climate plan. But absolutely nothing about this ridiculous controversy is real, writes Jonathan Bernstein. It's 100% fake, not even 90/10, like low-fat ground beef. This does point, however, to a very real problem: An entire political party has for the most part simply traded policy debates for internet trolling.  Warning Biden is coming for your beef is also part of the apocalyptic language conservatives reliably use about the president's plans. Noah Smith points out this is unhelpful, mainly to conservatives. He suggests Bidenomics is just the latest leftward swing of the great American political pendulum. It will inevitably swing back to the right soon enough. Conservatives will want to be ready with actual policies and not just T-shirts that say "Come Pry My Whopper From My Cold Dead Hands."   To be fair, America's millionaires may have some reason to be in "anger, denial and grief" about Biden's plans to raise capital-gains tax rates. Tim O'Brien has checked his pockets and is fresh out of darns to give. Our millionaires will still have millions, if somewhat fewer than they have come to expect in recent years. History suggests this won't affect stocks, the economy or really anything of note, aside perhaps from America's second-yacht industry.  Bonus Economic Policy Reading:  The Fed should be tapering its stimulus. Instead it's creating bigger problems down the road. — Mohamed El-Erian  Low rates and retirement insecurity lead savers to hoard money, defeating the purpose of low rates. — Stuart Trow   Time for Some (Health Care) Supply-Side Economics Covid vaccine demand, or the lack thereof, is getting to be a problem in the U.S., though its mass-vaccination campaign may be nearing an end. But vaccine supply is an issue in much of the rest of the world. The Biden administration today said it would give the world millions of AstraZeneca doses, which is a start. But it's not nearly enough. And Mihir Sharma points out the failure to get shots to desperate places such as India is mainly a failure of capitalism, which favors corporate profits and the status quo over public health.  Also not a great advertisement for capitalism? America's own health-care system. Matthew Yglesias suggests that, rather than continuing to monkey with the demand (read: insurance) side of this problem, we start to ramp up health-care supply. This should improve competition and lower costs. One other hurdle to vaccine supply has been the FDA. It of course wants to be careful about shots going into arms, but it has arguably delayed lifesaving medicine in the process. Sarah Green Carmichael compares this to how the FDA treats supplements, which is basically just to toss them onto store shelves and see what happens.  Telltale Charts India's Covid disaster is making an oil rebound unlikely this year, thwarting OPEC's plans, writes Julian Lee.  Further Reading Biden is right to set aggressive climate goals, to lead the world and kick-start urgent work. — Bloomberg's editorial board  Howard Wolfson breaks down the state of the NYC mayoral race. — David Shipley Here are four ways companies can adapt to deglobalization. — Dambisa Moyo  Apple's splashy ramp-up of U.S. investment is basically turning a big dial marked "patriotism." — Tae Kim  Boris Johnson has a massive Greensill problem, to go with his other problems. — Therese Raphael  The Archegos debacle is a reminder the SEC must make firms disclose all their investments. — Arthur Levitt Jr. After the Derek Chauvin verdict, Minneapolis still must figure out how to get lasting justice for Black citizens. — Adam Minter  ICYMI Texas gained, New York lost a House seat (by just 89 people).  Your travel options could soon be based on your vaccine brand. The masses invading business class. Kickers People fight with pool noodles for the right to be called "Josh." (h/t Mike Smedley) Tornado rainbow. (h/t Ellen Kominers)  There's more than one way to make alien life. Rescuing shipwrecked kids was only barely the most interesting thing Peter Warner did.  Notes: Please send pool noodles and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook.   Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.   You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. 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