A boom only for some

Follow Us Get the newsletter After the pandemic-induced economic slump comes potentially the biggest global boom in more than half a century. Many countries may not benefit. Prospects are "diverging dangerously" in the world economy, according to Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, which holds its semi-annual meeting online this week. As Rich Miller and Enda Curran write, the U.S. is bouncing back via trillions of dollars of budgetary stimulus. China, the only major economy to expand in 2020, is enjoying a V-shaped recovery after taming the coronavirus (and could be on track to overtake America as the world's biggest economy by 2028 on some forecasts). Buoyed by a successful inoculation campaign, the U.K. plans to trial Covid-19 passports to kick start an economy still reeling from its deepest recession in 300 years. Still, countries in Europe are mired in new lockdowns as the European Union's immunization program stumbles. And emerging markets such as Brazil, Turkey and Russia are squeezed by a slow pace of vaccination and pressure to hike interest rates to counter inflation or prevent capital outflows. So while the two biggest economies power ahead, large parts of the world may continue to struggle. The IMF estimates global output will still be 3% lower in 2024 than was projected before the pandemic. Covid-19 has laid bare social and political tensions that may show up in elections this year in key countries including Germany, Russia and Mexico. The risk now is an uneven recovery deepens international divisions between Covid "winners" and "losers," fueling instability the world can ill afford. —Tony Halpin A 'Now Hiring' sign at a Popeye's restaurant on Feb. 4 in Miami, Florida. Photographer: Joe Raedle/Getty Images North America Check out all our biggest stories on the Bloomberg Politics web page here and tell us how we're doing or what we're missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net. Global Headlines New playbook | The Biden administration is looking to counter Republican opposition in Congress to its $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan by leveraging overwhelming public support for the proposal. Nancy Cook explains that instead of trying to win over GOP lawmakers, the focus is on enlisting support from local politicians. The U.S. is pressing ahead with plans to hit six nations that tax Internet-based companies such as Amazon and Facebook with retaliatory tariffs that could total almost $1 billion annually. Virus alarm | India added more than 100,000 Covid infections over the last 24 hours, a record increase that saw financial capital Mumbai impose fresh curbs through April. The fear is the surge will be worsened by mass gatherings — five states are in the middle of elections, while a month long Hindu pilgrimage is drawing hundreds of thousands to the banks of the Ganges river. Crowded Juhu beach in Mumbai on April 4. Photographer: Sujit Jaiswal/AFP Royal drama | Jordan's stability, long protected by the U.S. and other allies, has been shaken by the dramatic weekend arrest of some royal family members and others accused of plotting unrest in the kingdom. Former Crown Prince Hamza Bin Hussein, King Abdullah II's half-brother, is under house detention. The nation's security is crucial given its role in Israeli-Palestinian tensions and its borders with Syria and Iraq. Drone king | President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's son-in-law Selcuk Bayraktar has a key role in Turkey's emergence as a producer of armed drones used in conflicts as far afield as Libya and Azerbaijan. Selcan Hacaoglu outlines how the two men are leading a push for homegrown equipment that's pitching Ankara into uneasy new alliances and straining ties with traditional NATO partners. Turkey accused 14 retired admirals of plotting to overthrow Erdogan and took some of them into custody. Difficult victory | Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov's party won yesterday's elections, but his path to a fourth term as leader of the EU's poorest and most corrupt member state will be complicated. His opponents have vowed not to cooperate with him — or each other — in a governing alliance, with Borissov calling for unity to help combat a surge in virus cases and rebuild the economy. What to Watch This Week Iran ruled out direct or indirect talks with the U.S. when the two countries and other powers gather in Vienna tomorrow for discussions on the possible resurrection of the 2015 nuclear deal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption trial swings into high gear today, with his political future also on the line after a fourth inconclusive election. Group of 20 finance ministers meet Wednesday to consider extending debt relief to low-income countries beyond June. Kosovo lawmakers elected U.S-educated jurist Vjosa Osmani president, filling a post held by an ex-guerrilla who stepped down last year to face war crimes charges. Russia backed off a threat to block Twitter, saying it has sped up efforts to remove content that local regulators deemed illegal. Peru holds presidential elections on Sunday, the same day that leftist economist Andres Arauz and conservative Guillermo Lasso contest Ecuador's runoff vote. And finally ... As coronavirus mutations pop up in increasingly complicated patterns, top biologists are racing to track the genomic data flooding their computer systems, Robert Langreth writes. A key challenge is to figure out if SARS-CoV-2 becomes a nuisance like the common cold or a flu that causes severe disease in some people and requires booster shots. Transmission electron microscope image of the virus that causes Covid-19. 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