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Good morning. The U.K. starts its Moderna vaccine rollout, Iran talks continue, global growth forecasts are boosted and Samsung's profit jumps. Here's what's moving markets.

Moderna Time

The U.K. will begin rolling out the Moderna vaccine today, with the shot first offered in Wales, making it the third approved vaccine to be offered in Britain. Meanwhile, the European Union expects most member states to have sufficient vaccine supplies to immunize the majority of people by the end of June. However, meeting the target may depend on uptake of the Astra shot, for which child trials are being held up as the U.K.'s drug regulator investigates rare cases of blood clots in adults. Elsewhere, London's bankers have started to trickle back into the City, while Germany faces more calls for strict, short-term restrictions.

Iran Talks

Iran and world powers on Tuesday began talks to resurrect the troubled nuclear deal, with negotiators from the U.S. and Islamic Republic gathered at the same venue for the first time since former U.S. leader Donald Trump plunged the accord into doubt in 2018. The discussions in Vienna may extend through the end of the week, Bloomberg reports, though Iranian and American representatives aren't expected to speak directly, reflecting current deep distrust. Oil is steady as traders wonder  whether or not the talks could lead to added Iranian supply. 

Growth Lift

The International Monetary Fund said the global economy will expand 6% this year, up from the 5.5% pace estimated in January. That would be the most in four decades, though comes after the worst peacetime decline since the Great Depression. China will contribute more than one-fifth of the total increase in the world's gross domestic product in the five years through 2026, according to Bloomberg calculations based on IMF forecasts. Later, investors will eye minutes of the March Federal Reserve meeting, with policy makers seeing significant slack in the labor market, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. 

Samsung Profit Jump

Samsung Electronics profit for the first quarter rose 44% from the prior year amid the early release of a new flagship smartphone and strong gadget sales. The world's largest memory maker had warned about profitability declining in the first quarter, anticipating weaker demand, but instead the economic rebound from the pandemic happened faster than expected and semiconductor prices are now on the rise.​ Samsung's smartphone shipments are estimated up 25% from the previous quarter, with an average selling price more than 20% higher, according to one broker.

Coming Up…

European stock futures are slightly lower after shares rose to a record on Tuesday, while Asian equities were steady overnight. Retail investors in Deliveroo will be able to cut their losses for the first time since the initial public offering, should they choose to, with the stock nursing a loss of 28%. In earnings, cruise ship firm Carnival reports, with its shares getting a boost overnight from a U.S. regulator's announcement that cruises could resume this summer, albeit with restrictions. In fixed income, two of Europe's most indebted nations, Italy and Portugal, are gearing up to test investor appetite for their bonds.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

In a sign of increasing investor caution, speculators have been pulling back their bets for lower volatility in U.S. shares. Net short non-commercial positions in Cboe Volatility Index futures have shrunk for six straight weeks to their lowest since the beginning of December. Meanwhile, the number of shares outstanding on the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF -- a gauge of demand for bets on the leveraged volatility fund -- is up almost 90% this year. The U.S. equity volatility benchmark fell to its lowest in over a year on Thursday as the S&P 500 Index closed at a record high. The futures and ETF signals suggest some traders are increasingly concerned that volatility may soon return amid worries about stretched valuations and signs of froth in risk assets.

Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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