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Watching for clues

Bloomberg

China's parliament gives the appearance of a well-scripted television show.

Everything that goes to the National People's Congress, which starts its annual gathering tomorrow in Beijing, has already been agreed by the top leadership and is obligingly rubber stamped.

That includes economic plans, state budgets, climate targets, defense spending, and, this year, potential changes to the rules for elections in Hong Kong. Nothing is left to chance.

But even a stripped-down affair like this year's meeting — again smaller in size due to the pandemic — is worth parsing for clues. The Communist Party can and does use the NPC to announce major policy or personnel changes.

The NPC also gives President Xi Jinping and other leaders a platform to defend Beijing's actions in Hong Kong and against its Uighur Muslim minority in Xinjiang. That won't change things with the U.S. — Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called America's dealings with China the defining test of the century — but is aimed more at a domestic audience, anyway.

For this year is the scene-setter in Xi's bid to hold onto power. Next year's Party Congress will mark the end of his current term as Communist Party leader, and the big question is whether he'll remain for another five years.

Xi has already ensured the rules on term limits were changed to enable him to stay on as president.

But that doesn't mean next year is risk-free. We've seen major party meetings turn into nasty power plays before. Xi needs this NPC to run smoothly and send all the right messages at home. — Rosalind Mathieson

Soldiers near the Forbidden City in Beijing yesterday.

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

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Global Headlines

Debate delay | The U.S. Senate debate on President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion pandemic-relief bill will likely be pushed into the weekend as lawmakers await an official cost estimate on the latest version of the proposal. Yet Democrats still should be able to meet their goal of enacting the legislation before the March 14 expiry of expanded unemployment benefits.

  • Tensions rose in Washington after warnings that a militia group may be plotting to attack the Capitol today prompted the House to cancel plans to meet for votes, almost two months after the insurrection by supporters of former President Donald Trump.

Border crisis | The Biden administration is racing to head off a potential humanitarian and political crisis on the border with Mexico where the crossing of thousands of unaccompanied children threatens to overwhelm government holding areas. Officials are moving to clear shelter space, which was about 90% occupied late last month, by speeding the release of minors to relatives or sponsors in the U.S.

  • A White House official told Mexican authorities that key aspects of the two countries' fight against drug trafficking aren't working and that the U.S. is open to pursuing new strategies together.

Asylum seekers leave the Matamoros camp to cross into the U.S. on Feb. 26.

Photographer: Cesar Rodriguez/Bloomberg

Cut off | Hungarian Premier Viktor Orban's withdrawal of his party from its European Union parliamentary caucus shows the growing alienation of populist forces in the bloc's eastern wing. Andrea Dudik, Milda Seputyte and Lenka Ponikelska report that Biden's promise to end "America First" and the imminent departure of German chancellor Angela Merkel, who kept dialogue open, threatens to cut nationalists from Poland to Slovenia adrift.

  • The EU said it will take legal action against the U.K. for breaching their Brexit deal, after a British decision to take unilateral action on trade rules relating to Northern Ireland.

Marathon hearing | Dozens of Hong Kong opposition figures have spent four days in court to see if they'll be jailed before their trials on national security charges, but the unusually long arraignment may have already done lasting damage to the justice system's reputation. Sessions have stretched late into the night, prompting some defendants to seek hospital care.

  • Hong Kong has disappeared from the annual Heritage Foundation ranking of the world's freest economies, which it led for a quarter of a century.

New hot spot | Papua New Guinea reported its largest weekly rise in virus cases, raising concerns the pandemic is worsening in the Pacific Islands region's most populous country. With fears the virus may spread to other Pacific nations, the outbreak could also have geopolitical implications as China assists with vaccine supplies and Australia and the U.S. offer humanitarian aid.

What to Watch

  • Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for a missile strike on a Saudi Aramco site in the city of Jeddah today, the latest in a series of attacks by the group on the kingdom.
  • Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan will seek a confidence vote in parliament's lower house after his finance minister lost an election for a seat in the upper house.
  • Brazil's senate backed a $7.8 billion package of aid for the poor in a first-round vote as the pandemic batters the economy and pushes the health system to the brink of collapse.

And finally ... Like everyone else, criminal enterprises have suffered during the virus-induced economic crisis, but the Italian mafia is already planning for a massive payday. Last year, groups including the N'drangheta and the Cosa Nostra sought footholds in lawful businesses to siphon money from the EU's recovery fund and the $2.2 trillion that will start flowing to companies. As John Follain and Alessandra Migliaccio report, top organized crime investigator Maurizio Vallone is dead set on making sure they don't get a single euro.

A water bus, with a banner reading "No Mafia, Venice is sacred," navigates the Grand Canal in Venice.

Photographer: Federico Vespignani/Bloomberg


 

 

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