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The race for herd immunity

Bloomberg

Here's the latest new from the global pandemic.

Seychelles may win race to herd immunity

Israel was fastest out the blocks to inoculate its population against Covid-19, with more than half of its 9.3 million people having received at least one shot since Dec. 20.

But when it comes to approaching herd immunity, when enough of the population is immune to the disease to prevent it from spreading, it could be beaten to the finish line by a tiny Indian Ocean island nation.

Seychelles has only 98,462 residents, 57% of whom have had a first vaccine dose and 25% a second as of Tuesday, and President Wavel Ramkalawan has said the nation is on track to inoculate more than 70% by the middle of this month. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has set a target of vaccinating all those age 16 and older by the end of March.

Anthony Fauci, U.S. President Joe Biden's chief medical adviser for the pandemic, estimates that 70% to 85% of a population needs to be inoculated to reach herd immunity. Israel is unlikely to reach that goal even if all adults are vaccinated because shots haven't been approved for children, who account for almost 30% of its people, according to Sharon Alroy-Preis, the nation's top public health official.

Seychelles Minister for Fisheries Jean-François Ferrari awaits his first vaccine dose.

Photographer: RASSIN VANNIER/AFP

While the speed with which countries can distribute vaccines will be a crucial determinant of how quickly they can exit the coronavirus mire, their choice of shot could prove equally important.

Israel has mainly dispensed vaccines made by Pfizer and BioNTech, and a study published last month showed they were 94% effective in preventing Covid-19 infections among 596,618 people who received a double dose. Deaths and hospitalizations of Israeli seniors who were prioritized for inoculation have plunged, providing further evidence that the jabs work.

Seychelles has mainly used a shot from the state-owned China National Biotec Group, a unit of Sinopharm. While the developers say it was shown to be 79% effective, that claim has yet to be subjected to peer review.

The government has also been administering vaccines developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford that trial data showed were 84% effective against the original coronavirus strain. However, a small study showed the shots had little impact on mild infections caused by a variant that was first identified in South Africa late last year and has since been detected in almost 50 other nations.

The effectiveness of Seychelles's vaccination campaign has yet to be determined but should become evident over the next few months as the archipelago's crucial tourism industry resumes operating. That will provide critical information as to whether herd immunity is attainable and if so, a possible avenue to get there.—Mike Cohen

Listen up

Nursing Home Deaths Become Political Footbal‪l

In recent months, GOP lawmakers have heaped criticism on Democratic governors for how they handled outbreaks at nursing homes early in the pandemic. Michigan Republicans, who have been hostile to Governor Gretchen Whitmer throughout the crisis, are now asking the state's attorney general to investigate how she coped with that challenge. David Welch reports that Michigan's fatality rate was lower than the national average, and many of those on the pandemic's front line dispute the assertions. Get the episode here

 

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