Jackson Burke: The Trump Era is only just beginning
EDITOR'S NOTE
Our guest today is back by popular demand...CNBC Economics Producer Jackson Burke!
The Trump Era is only just beginning
On Monday, Republican Senator Roy Blunt of Missouri announced he won't be seeking re-election next year. He is now the fifth Senate Republican to call it quits before the midterms, joining Senators Portman, Shelby, Toomey, and Burr. Two other prominent members of the Senate GOP, Chuck Grassley and Ron Johnson, have said they're also contemplating not running next year, but haven't committed to anything yet.
What's interesting about this is that the Republican party should be on the offensive right now. Midterm elections typically swing against the party holding the White House, and beyond that the GOP could retake control of the Senate--currently a 50/50 split--by flipping only a couple of seats. And in the House, Democrats only hold a slim nine-seat advantage at the moment. On top of that, Republicans have a geographic advantage in the fight for control of Congress, as the realignment that's turned rural America bright red picked up serious steam during the Trump administration.
So why are so many of the Senate Republicans jumping ship? It may not be a question of whether or not the GOP does well in the midterms next year, but rather which type of Republicans are likely to galvanize voters and mold the Senate going forward.
The Senators stepping aside are of all different ages, regions, and types of conservatism. But one thing that unites them is leadership--specifically, leadership of the Senate's powerful committees. Richard Burr chaired the Intelligence Committee before the GOP lost control in the Georgia runoffs. Richard Shelby chaired Appropriations. Patrick Toomey and Rob Portman are ranking members on Banking and Homeland Security, respectively, and would be a near-lock to take over those committees as chair in a GOP Senate. Roy Blunt is chair of the Republican Policy Committee, and would have been third in line for the job of leader if Sen. McConnell retired.
But with those powerful positions comes a limited ability to maneuver if the political ground shifts under your feet. Previous votes, and especially previous compromises, can come back to haunt you. Just ask former House Speaker John Boehner.
And former President Trump will continue to wield enormous power in the GOP caucus, whether or not he runs again in 2024. On Monday, he put out a statement proclaiming "No more money for RINOs" (or Republicans In Name Only). He went on to ask the Republican rank-and-file to send money to his Save America PAC.
The Senators who are now leaving are--whether they stayed in President Trump's good graces or not--part of the GOP establishment. The ideology, the energy, and the money of the party faithful are going toward candidates who fit the Trump mold instead: populist punchers who never apologize and never compromise.
Whether the loss of these traditionalists will cost the GOP winnable seats and a chance for control of the Senate in 2022 remains to be seen. What is certain, especially because many of these seats are in states where Mr. Trump remains enormously popular, is that the Republicans who replace them will change the nature of the Senate, just as Mr. Trump has changed the party.
A big thanks to Jackson for this insightful piece. See you next month! -Kelly KEY STORIES
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