Good morning. More suspensions for AstraZeneca's vaccine, Europe's plan to ease lockdowns and a slew of new blank-check companies. Here's what's moving markets. Vaccine SuspensionsThe list of European countries suspending AstraZeneca's vaccine as a precautionary measure amid worries about potential blood-clotting side effects is growing. That deals another blow to the speed of an already-faltering vaccination rollout. Germany and France have both halted the shot, despite the European Union's drug regulator reiterating its support for the treatment. U.K. leaders moved to reassure the public amid the concerns, saying there is no evidence of a "casual link" between blood clots and the vaccine. The European Medicines Agency is set to decide the next steps on Thursday. Recovery PlansWith those vaccine worries going on in the foreground, the European Union is set to propose a strategy to gradually lift virus lockdown restrictions. A draft of a policy document seen by Bloomberg, due to be unveiled on Wednesday, outlines a shift to a tiered system which will be based on the epidemiological situation in each country. The EU is also working on creating a digital contact-tracing system which will let member states better track outbreaks as people travel across borders. Also rearing its head again is Brexit, with the EU launching legal action against the U.K. over its unilateral decision to delay implementing a part of the Brexit deal, marking a sharp escalation of tensions between the two sides. SPACs and BitcoinTwo areas of speculative fervor remain firmly in focus. Blank-check companies are showing few signs of slowing down, with Monday alone bringing new companies targeting acquisitions in the consumer, fintech and green metals sectors. The latest deal set to come to market even combines SPACs and retail trading, two major themes in stock markets this year, with trading platform eToro said to be close to going public in a $10 billion merger. Elsewhere, having topped out at a record level of above $61,000 over the weekend, Bitcoin is continuing to unwind that bounce and is back to trading at around $54,000 per token. Oil's Moving PartsOil prices dipped lower again on Tuesday, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and with technical indicators signaling oversupply in the market. There are plenty of moving parts to consider. The futures curve for crude oil is showing signs of strain with Asian refiners' appetite for American oil diminishing and shale producers in the unusual position of reducing oil output just as prices rise as they focus on cost prudence. Meanwhile, U.S. oil demand is bouncing back and seemingly in a sustainable way, though a surge of Iranian crude may complicate efforts to tighten global supply. Coming Up…European stock-futures are trending marginally higher and U.S. futures are mixed heading into Tuesday, with equities gaining in Asia and Treasury yields holding declines. We'll get some inflation data from France and Italy but the focus in the economic agenda will be on retail sales and industrial production numbers from the U.S. Earnings speed up again, with numbers due from automaker Volkswagen, which laid out its battery plans this week, and building materials group Ferguson. Fashion retailer Zalando, which reported its results on Monday after Europe's close, topped expectations. What We've Been ReadingThis is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morningPost-pandemic speculative fervor and the recent scramble for cheap cyclical shares hasn't left much of a dent in the premium investors are willing to pay to own the strongest companies. The valuation gap of Goldman Sachs baskets of U.S. and European shares with the strongest balance sheets remains well above levels seen before the coronavirus outbreak and at the peak of the pandemic fears, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The baskets are based on Altman Z-scores, a measure tracking the likes of profitability, leverage and liquidity to determine the probability a firm could encounter bankruptcy. The continued high premiums investors put on balance sheet strength suggests they remain wary on the weakest stocks as the global economy reopens, even as they outperform their more robust rivals. The U.S. strong balance sheet basket has lagged its weaker rival by about 20% so far this year and the European one has underperformed by about 3%. But that hasn't been enough to send the strongest companies into the bargain bin just yet. Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo. Something new we think you'd like: We're launching a newsletter about the future of cars, written by Bloomberg reporters around the world. Be one of the first to sign up to get it in your inbox soon. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. |
Post a Comment