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Putin’s gamble

Balance of Power
Bloomberg

By seeking to put Alexey Navalny behind bars, Russian President Vladimir Putin is gambling that he can sideline the opposition leader and contain domestic anger while ignoring Western criticism. For now, at least, history is on Putin's side.

Navalny's dramatic return last month from Germany, where he was recovering from a nerve-agent poisoning he blames on Putin, sparked the biggest wave of protests in a decade. The Kremlin denies responsibility for the attack on Navalny, and today a Moscow court is deliberating on accusations he breached his probation while receiving treatment.

Many demonstrators who defied Russia's fearsome riot police said they were driven by a sense of injustice. Far from all supported Navalny as a politician, but none wanted to allow the state to behave with impunity.

Russians have also been getting poorer for years amid U.S. and European Union sanctions since Putin annexed Crimea in 2014, and now Covid-19 is hammering the economy.

But while U.S. President Joe Biden is more critical of Putin than Donald Trump ever was, and the EU's foreign policy chief plans to raise Navalny's case during a visit to Moscow this week, each knows they have few real options for pressuring the Kremlin.

And so far, Navalny's fate hasn't translated into a critical mass of discontent on the streets. Jailing him offers Putin a chance to defeat Russia's most potent opposition symbol ahead of 2024 elections, after he changed the constitution to let himself rule potentially to 2036.

Many younger Russians are impatient for change after 21 years under Putin. But the risk now is that Putin may prove he can still crush opposition while paying little price for it with the West. — Anthony Halpin

 

Riot police during a demonstration in support of Navalny on Jan. 31.

Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg

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Global Headlines

Stimulus drive | Biden and Democratic lawmakers are pursuing a two-track strategy to win approval for a massive pandemic relief bill. The president promised more talks with Republicans after yesterday's meeting at the White House, while party leaders in Congress started a "budget reconciliation" procedure that will allow the passage of much of Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan in the Senate by a simple majority.

  • Trump's lawyers will argue at his impeachment trial next week that the process was rushed and partisan and that his rhetoric to supporters who later stormed the Capitol was constitutionally protected.
  • Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell denounced the "loony lies and conspiracy theories" of controversial GOP Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, calling them a "cancer" for the party and the nation.

Warning shot | China's top diplomat told the U.S. not to cross the country's "red line," pushing back against early moves by Biden to press Beijing on human rights. Yang Jiechi, who sits on the Communist Party's Politburo, said in a video address the two sides "stand at a key moment" to rebuild ties, while placing the onus on the U.S. to repair the damage caused by Trump's "misguided policies."

  • Jack Ma was absent from a list of China's entrepreneurial greats published by state media, underscoring how far the Alibaba co-founder has run afoul of Beijing.

Vaccine winners | Continental Europe's top country for getting vaccines into people is chalking its success up to looking East as well as West. Serbia is an important bridge for China to Europe, is a traditional ally of Russia and is aspiring to join the EU. As Misha Savic and Andrea Dudik report, those ties have allowed it to diversify sources and inoculate a bigger proportion of its population than any other European state after the U.K — and more than twice the ratio in the EU.

  • All Germans will get a vaccine by the end of September as long as drug makers stick to their delivery commitments, Chancellor Angela Merkel said, after crisis talks with pharmaceutical executives, state premiers and European Commission officials.

Testing times | Hong Kong is threatening to knock down the doors of residents who don't respond to authorities conducting mandatory-testing blitzes, as the Asian financial hub attempts to curb another wave of Covid-19 infections. The government has suggested some might be deliberately evading tests in areas that range from densely packed neighborhoods to just a handful of buildings.

  • Read how the U.K. and China are facing off over Hong Kong.

A mobile testing unit in the Kwun Tong neighborhood.

Photographer: Paul Yeung/Bloomberg

Trade shock | Intensified global competition for containers is upending the global food business, stalling shipments of everything from Thai rice and Canadian peas to India's mountain of sugar. The reason, Isis Almeida, Ann Koh and Michael Hirtzer explain, is that as China revs up its export economy, it's becoming far more profitable to send the ribbed steal boxes back empty than to refill them.

What to Watch

  • President Jair Bolsonaro received a boost for the second half of his mandate as allies became the heads of both houses of Brazil's congress.
  • The coup against Aung San Suu Kyi's government has knee-capped Myanmar's democratic transition and raised questions about the army's endgame. We hosted a Q&A live chat on LINE messenger and you can read an abridged transcript here.
  • The speaker of Italy's lower house is due to report back today to President Sergio Mattarella on whether talks with parties found outgoing Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has enough support to form a new government.
  • As many as 20,000 refugees have gone missing after camps in Ethiopia's war-torn Tigray region were destroyed, the United Nations said.

And finally ... Long derided as a bumbling seat-warmer, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has emerged as a ruthless strongman — deflecting U.S. pressure, purging rivals, empowering his son, wife and trusted aides, and letting dollars flow to keep his battered economy from collapse. The result is that the man thought to be the wan face of Chavismo — the movement named for his magnetic predecessor, Hugo Chavez — is the head of what is increasingly called Madurismo.

Maduro speaks at the National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 12. 

Photographer: Carlos Becerra/Bloomberg


 

 

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