Arielle Berger: The "I Do" Redux
EDITOR'S NOTE
Today's guest writer is Arielle Berger, who was a "Power Lunch" producer before she deserted us to launch "After Hours"--CNBC.com's twice-weekly business wrap show. (Check it out Tuesdays and Thursdays at 6:30pm ET on our website, on YouTube, on the CNBC app or through your cable TV app.)
"Here we go again," read the subject line of an email I received earlier this week.
The first line of the body: "Get ready for take two of Anna's bachelorette party!!!!" (That's an accurate representation of the exclamation point-to-sentence ratio; I am a journalist, after all.)
My dear friend Anna had a big girls weekend in Palm Springs planned for last May. Which never happened. Neither did Maggie's weekend in Austin. Or Emily's trip to Mexico. Same goes for Keira's party in Charleston. All scheduled for last spring as well.
As for the formal marriage celebrations themselves? None of those happened, either. At least not yet. The brides are all hoping for 2021.
So is the entire wedding industry, which was brought to its knees when the dangers of the coronavirus became clear eleven months ago. The number of weddings last year plunged by 50% from 2019. That's a devastating hit to the wedding economy--the florists, bands, DJs, caterers, planners, waitstaff, bartenders, hair stylists, makeup artists, photographers, videographers--all suddenly fielding just half the business they brought in the year before.
Conventional wisdom says weddings are recession-proof. And that may be true, to some extent. But they're certainly not pandemic-proof. This $70 billion industry is now desperately hoping things improve enough to salvage business this year; in fact, The Wedding Report forecasts 2021 could be even busier than 2019 was, thanks to all the pent-up demand.
But the "2021 is an industry savior" narrative is not yet a foregone conclusion.
It's too late for venture-backed online wedding apparel retailer Brideside, for one. They won't be serving customers for 2021 dates, even those customers who already purchased garments for weddings that were supposed to happen in 2020. I am one such customer, informed by email in November that my bridesmaid dress order would not be fulfilled. After a few calls, I was told the best way to retrieve the nearly $300 I paid seven months earlier was to dispute the charge directly with my bank.
And even the weddings that do happen could still be pared down, curbing the income for all businesses involved. In New York, for instance, Governor Cuomo just gave the go-ahead for couples to hold weddings of up to 150 people, starting in March--provided all the guests test negative for Covid-19. But it's not clear how many people, especially older guests, will show up even with those stipulations for such gatherings.
Which means--for the wedding industry, as with the whole economy--much depends on the vaccine's progress in taming the further spread of Covid. We're certainly not going to be at "herd immunity" by the time peak wedding season sets in at the end of May. We'd need to be administering 3.5 million shots a day between now and then to do so, versus just under 1.5 million being administered last week on average.
In Connecticut, where I live, vaccines for the general public will be available to the public "starting this summer," per the official website. So that's late June. And there are 20+ days between doses. Assuming I'm not fully vaccinated, would I fly across the country to attend my friend's 100+ person wedding planned for July 24th on the west coast? It's a tough call. And I doubt I'm the only one wrestling with it.
Of course, things could look up if the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine--which will be reviewed by an FDA advisory committee on February 26th--gets emergency approval and can be quickly administered. But will 2021 save the wedding industry? Maybe. Hopefully. But TBD.
In the meantime, the industry is adapting as best it can. Vendors are including more packages geared towards "microweddings," or "mini-monies," as my friend Maggie dubbed her four-person proceeding in a town park. As for Anna's bachelorette party? It's now scheduled for September, in New York City, with plans for big dinners and nights out dancing at bars. I think she's a tad optimistic.
For now, though, the "I Do" redux is here. I'd add an exclamation point--you know, for emphasis--but I'm rationing them. I've got several bachelorette party email threads to respond to.
Thank you, Arielle!! You can see why we miss her. -Kelly KEY STORIES
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