Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Negotiations over President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion pandemic relief proposal are now proceeding along two paths. On one, Democrats are preparing to use reconciliation, a procedure that evades Senate filibusters. On the other, Biden is preparing to negotiate with 10 Republicans who are proposing a much smaller bill of about $600 billion. There's a long way to go, but that seems about right. For one thing, it's not clear that Biden has serious negotiating partners. Indeed, it's not clear yet whether the Republican package will even really total $600 billion once the details emerge, let alone if all 10 of those senators are committed to finding a compromise that presumably would have to be somewhere between where they are and what the Democrats want. And they'll need all 10 to defeat the filibuster the rest of the party will be mounting in the Senate. If, that is, the Democrats don't use reconciliation. Biden should keep in mind that voters probably don't care about bipartisanship, but certainly do care about a healthy economy and defeating the pandemic. He should also ignore any Republican efforts to demonize reconciliation. This is an old Republican ploy, which they trotted out the last time Democrats had unified government. It's hogwash. Republicans didn't quite invent this parliamentary procedure, but Ronald Reagan was the first president to use it for major legislation, and Republicans rushed to use it as soon as Donald Trump was elected. It's not just that voters don't care about procedure; it's that there's nothing here to care about — objecting to a congressional majority using reconciliation is like objecting to an American League team using a designated hitter, or an NBA player taking a three-point shot, or a chess player taking a pawn en passant. It's the rules everyone plays by. Of course, Democrats should be under no illusions about which party will take the blame if things go wrong; indeed, they should assume that even with 10 — even with 20 — Republican votes, the loudest voices from the party and in Republican-aligned media are going to attack this bill. But if Republicans are serious about fighting the pandemic, supplying relief to those affected, and boosting the economy, then Democrats should listen and be open to compromise. One reason is that they may have to. All 50 Senate Democrats and almost every House Democrat will have to be on board to pass Biden's proposal. So if West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin says he wants to compromise, they pretty much have to listen to him. Even if there's no deal to be made, some Democrats who would prefer a bipartisan bill might need to see for themselves that it isn't possible. And even if most Republicans are going to flat-out reject anything Democrats propose, building a good working relationship with the rest may be useful down the road. Of course, the costs of compromise matter. Compromise takes time; the need, Biden's advisers are telling him, is urgent. Any successful deal would mean less spent on items that Biden's policy experts say are necessary. So if these 10 Republicans are sincere, Democrats may still eventually decide that the policy differences are just too wide to bridge. Can they do that and still manage to buy some good will and keep Manchin and other marginal Democrats on board? Well, that's where Biden's experience is supposed to kick in. We'll see. 1. Dan Drezner on Biden's throwback presidency. 2. Norm Ornstein on Republican cowardice. 3. Joanne B. Freeman on political violence in 1850 and today. 4. Matthew Dallek on how a previous generation of conservatives repudiated antidemocratic radicals. 5. While Reid Wilson reports on what some antidemocratic Republican state legislators are up to. 8. And Grace Segers tells her Jan. 6 story. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. |
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