| Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. At long last, the 2020 election cycle concludes on Tuesday with two big U.S. Senate runoff elections in Georgia. We have no idea what will happen, other than that turnout appears to be unusually high for this type of contest and that it's more likely than not that the same party will win both seats. Both sets of candidates have spent huge amounts of money; leaders of both parties have traveled to the state. Voters appear to be eager to participate and, as with most contests these days, have in many cases already cast their ballot well before Election Day. Polls close at 7:00 p.m. Eastern time. As we saw in November, there can be big shifts as different buckets of votes — absentee, early in-person and Election Day in-person — get counted, along with the traditional shifts when different counties report. In November, Republicans did better in ballots counted on Election Night and Democrats gained ground after that, but the same patterns won't necessarily hold this time. If these turn out to be close races, we'll probably have to be patient. As all the experts said in November, accurate counts are more important than quick ones. Here's the twist: If you haven't been paying attention, you should know that these elections are extremely important. If you've been paying close attention, these contests may actually be less important than you think. For those who haven't tuned in, the elections are important because the Senate majority is at stake. If Republicans win both seats, they'll have a 52-48 majority; if Democrats win both, the Senate will be at 50-50 and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will have the tie-breaking vote, thus giving Democrats the thinnest possible majority. Of course, having the majority is important because it means that a party can win votes as long as it's unified. But it's even more important because the majority can control what gets voted on in the first place. In particular: If Republicans retain their majority, they'll probably prevent many judicial and executive-branch nominations from reaching the Senate floor for a confirmation vote — even nominations that would be approved if they did receive a vote. That's what they did in the last two years of Barack Obama's presidency, and it's likely what they'd do now. That said, some of the heated rhetoric surrounding these elections overstates the case. Democrats with a 50-50 Senate aren't going to pass the bulk of their legislative agenda. Even putting the filibuster aside, their majority is only as liberal as its least liberal Democrat (presumably West Virginia's Joe Manchin, although in some policy areas it could be one of half a dozen other moderate liberals). That's not going to make President-elect Joe Biden very happy — let alone allow folks such as Senator Elizabeth Warren or Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to get what they want. If the elections go the other way? A small Republican majority in the Senate won't necessarily shut down all legislation. We just finished a surprisingly productive year in a divided Congress, with half a dozen major bills passing to fight the pandemic and supply relief and economic stimulus to those hurt by it. Yes, it's probably true that some Senate Republicans would prefer to ruin Biden's presidency than to make deals. But others will be open to compromise in certain policy areas. There could be continued legislative progress on the pandemic response, or on other issues that aren't in the spotlight. In other words: Yes, every senator is important, and holding the majority is crucial. But we're still not talking about 100% or zero. 1. Greg Koger at Mischiefs of Faction on the law that governs the congressional reception of electoral votes. 2. Sarah Binder at the Monkey Cage runs through the procedure that Congress will use for those votes. 3. Casey Burgat and Matt Glassman on the presidency after Trump. 4. Dan Drezner on Trump voters in 2021. 5. Yuval Levin on a populism of contempt for the people. 6. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Ramesh Ponnuru on challenging the election results in Congress. 7. And Greg Sargent talks with incoming pandemic czar Jeffrey Zients about the Biden administration's plans for vaccinations and more. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. | 
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