What are Republicans really up to?

Follow Us Get the newsletter Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. After Nancy Pelosi was re-elected as speaker of the House on Sunday with the votes of several Democrats who wouldn't vote for her in 2019, political scientist Matt Glassman reminded us that we can't always assume that the surface reading of politics is all that's going on: "Former defectors on the Speakership vote coming home to Pelosi now that the margin is tighter is a good reminder that most Speakership defections are (quite naturally) position-taking political moves and (often) blessed by leadership, not all-out hostility against the Speaker." That's also why it's difficult to interpret what's happening within the Republican Party. The truth is, we're seeing a lot of appalling things. At least some congressional Republicans this week are planning to vote to throw out the results of the presidential election simply because they can (or, that is, they could if their colleagues would vote with them). And this effort is actually only the third-nuttiest theory this week that some of these representatives support. (For the record: It's less nutty than the Texas lawsuit that more than 100 House Republicans supported that claimed some states can order others to switch their electoral votes just because they don't like the results, and that in turn is less nutty than the theory in Representative Louie Gohmert's lawsuit that the Constitution gives the vice president full authority to choose any electors he wants, and therefore dictate the results of presidential elections, so long as a state legislator asks him to.) But it's also true that none of these Republicans have the votes to do anything, and that those who have been in a position to advance President Donald Trump's evidence-free claims of fraud have instead chosen to uphold the rule of law. As have many other Republicans in Congress and most of the party's former elected and governing officials. The problem is that we don't know what either side is really up to. It's possible that Gohmert and his allies, all of whom knew that they didn't have the votes to overturn the election, were just play-acting and trying to differentiate themselves from mainstream conservatives. But at the same time, those politicians who were doing the right thing also knew that the votes weren't there, given the House Democratic majority and the certainty that there was no Senate majority for stealing the election. Perhaps if the election was a bit closer, or the allegations of fraud a little more plausible, then they would've been tempted to join with the conspirators. If the question is one of judging these politicians, then all that counts is what they actually did: Those who supported the rule of law deserve credit, and those who didn't deserve condemnation. But if the question is about where the Republican Party is and what it is capable of doing, then we need to admit that there's plenty of uncertainty. Perhaps none of them really mean it. Perhaps more do than we know. What we can say for sure is that quite a few Republicans (including, of course, the outgoing president) are willing to undermine constitutional government, and that they're severely eroding what used to be a consensus in support of democracy and the rule of law. We can also conclude that many Republican politicians think that doing so is hardly political suicide, and indeed may advance them within the party. And that's dangerous enough. 1. Really nice year-ender from Julia Azari at Mischiefs of Faction. 2. Also at Mischiefs: Matthew Green on governing with a small majority. 3. Dan Drezner highlights articles on political economy from 2020. 4. Joseph M. Brown at the Monkey Cage on the Nashville bomber. 5. And my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Michael R. Strain on Republican populists. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Early Returns newsletter. Unsubscribe | Bloomberg.com | Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022