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Let's Impeach Again, Like We Did Last Winter

The first impeachment of President Donald Trump — which as you probably recall happened in 1897 — took one month, two weeks and four days from start to failure. The second impeachment has just 13 days to run the full cycle.

It probably won't happen, but its PredictIt price is rising:

And impeachment is a lot more likely today than it was yesterday, when a mob of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol, an insurrection the president and his enablers inspired with wild claims the 2020 election was stolen from him. The rioters interrupted the counting of electoral votes and certification of President-elect Joe Biden's victory. Four people died, dozens were injured, and the safety of the vice president and every member of Congress was put at risk. This catastrophe proved Trump is "actively a danger to the republic," writes Jonathan Bernstein, and impeachment is the best way to neutralize him. Democrats in Congress apparently agree and today called for Trump's immediate removal, either through impeachment or the 25th Amendment.

This latest assault on democracy is certainly impeachable, writes Noah Feldman, but it's also more of the same behavior that got him impeached the first time. Senate Republicans weren't persuaded to remove him then and probably won't be now. Even Mitt Romney seems meh on the whole thing. Then again, conviction would keep Trump from being president again, which may intrigue a few ambitious Senate Republicans with eyes on 2024.

As difficult as impeachment is, the 25th Amendment route could be even harder. This was the remedy the National Association of Manufacturers, of all things, called for yesterday, in a jaw-dropping statement. But Cass Sunstein writes the courts would probably decide this approach — which involves the VP and most cabinet members (minus, today, Elaine Chao) voting to remove the president — is reserved for cases in which the president is physically or mentally incapacitated. Trump may fit that bill, but Mike Pence would have to prove it. He may be out of Trump's Circle of Trust, but you probably shouldn't bet on him trying. 

What to Expect When You're Expecting Impeachment to Fail

So what to do? Joe Nocera suggests the many businesses excoriating Trump should put their money where their press releases are and stop giving money to him and his congressional enablers. That's a start. Facebook, Twitter and other online venues where Trump has spewed toxic garbage are right to finally de-platform him, writes Tae Kim, though many, many horses have already fled those particular barns.

Ultimately, we may simply have to wait Trump out for the 12 days, 20 hours and 2 minutes until Biden's inauguration. All this impeachment talk, along with Congress finally confirming Biden's win in the wee hours of this morning, seems to have convinced Trump to end his quixotic campaign and promise a peaceful transition (from here on out). 

And maybe Trump will be satisfied, at least for a couple of weeks, by getting exactly what he wanted yesterday. As Tim O'Brien writes, Trump's heart probably grew three sizes as he watched the angry mob storm the Capitol on his behalf. He could barely bring himself to tell them to stop. The goal now, Tim writes, is to make sure Trump never gets what he wants again. 

Where Do We Go From Here?

One surefire way to prevent future coup attempts is to make sure there are real consequences for those who perpetrate them, Navy War College coup expert Naunihal Singh tells David Fickling in a Q&A. That may not include impeachment, but it should involve hearings and criminal prosecutions.

Consequences would also send a strong message to the world's autocrats. Trump's time in office has been a godsend to them, Clara Ferreira Marques writes, and they nearly died with joy over yesterday's violence. America is nobody's Shining City on the Hill anymore. 

But maybe the whole disgraceful episode gives Biden a chance to restore some luster. Many Republicans today condemned the assault and the president who inspired it. As Bloomberg's editorial board writes, nobody in Trump's party should be fooled anymore that there's anything to gain in standing by him or his movement. Trumpism has finally been exposed as an empty cult of one failed game-show host's bottomless need for self-aggrandizement, as Ramesh Ponnuru writes. There may actually be an opening here for a new president to unite the nation in leaving this grim era forever in the past.  

Further Coup-Reaction Reading:  Markets took it all very calmly, expecting the falcon to keep hearing the falconer. — John Authers 

Telltale Charts

France's latest lockdown rules were more stringent than the U.K.'s, and they seem to be paying off, write Sam Fazeli and Lionel Laurent.

Saudi Arabia's oil-price-boosting sacrifice isn't quite as onerous as it seems, writes Julian Lee.

Further Reading

Saying stocks aren't too expensive because bonds are is not a recipe for wise investment. — Richard Cookson 

The new virus strain puts more pressure on Biden to get control of the pandemic quickly. — Mohamed El-Erian

The rush to produce vaccines will create legal headaches for companies and countries when things go wrong. — Anjani Trivedi and Andy Mukherjee 

Arrests of pro-democracy activists push Hong Kong closer to China and create dilemmas for the world. — Matthew Brooker 

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