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Ready for change

January 04, 2021
Balance of Power
Bloomberg

As the world saw off 2020 there was palpable relief that a horrible year for many had ended, and hope that some things might improve in 2021.

Indeed there are changes afoot. Like it or not, Brexit is now done and the U.K. has departed the European Union, setting Britain on a new course where it will have to fend more for itself, including on trade. Later this month Democrat Joe Biden will enter the White House, promising a reset both at home and abroad after four tumultuous years of Donald Trump's leadership.

Today the first inoculation was given of another Covid-19 vaccine, from AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford. Countries are racing to protect the elderly and healthcare workers. Scientists have cooperated to create the shots with a speed that would have been unthinkable just years ago.

Leaders are pledging to attack with greater vigor their "Green" goals this year, putting growth on a longer-term sustainable footing once the pandemic subsides.

But much from 2020 continues to haunt us. New variations of the virus have seen cases spike, while infections are rising by almost 300,000 a day in the U.S. Countries are still imposing lockdowns on their cratering economies.

Suspicion over the origins of the virus, and of China's growing clout in general, has clouded prospects for greater global cooperation.

There's a big question mark over how to tackle Iran (plus North Korea and even Russia) in the post-Trump era. Tensions between the U.S. and China will remain, even if interactions become more predictable. The fight for control of technology around the world is only beginning.

The divisions and damage of 2020 won't magically disappear. But there's an opportunity for greater political goodwill, if leaders are ready to use it. — Rosalind Mathieson

Trevor Cowlett, 88, receives the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine from nurse Sam Foster today at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford, U.K.

Photographer: Steve Parsons/PA Wire

Tell us how we're doing or what we're missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

Global Headlines

Georgia run | Trump and Biden head to Georgia today for last-minute campaign appearances before tomorrow's runoff elections, which will decide whether Republicans keep control of the Senate. Trump's visit comes after a leaked tape revealed he pressured Georgian officials to find enough votes to overturn his presidential ballot loss in the state — the latest in an increasingly desperate series of moves to change the results in his favor.

  • More Republicans criticized efforts by members of their own party to oppose certification of Biden's win, an unorthodox legislative plan that Trump has greeted with enthusiasm.
  • Nancy Pelosi was elected House speaker as the new session of Congress began with a narrower Democratic majority, which will pose challenges to her goal of driving Biden's agenda in what could be her final term in the post.

New rollout | The U.K. administered the first shots of another Covid-19 vaccine, in a race against a faster-spreading virus variant that's prompted new lockdowns across much of the country. Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that tougher restrictions may be on the way and is under pressure to close all schools in England.

  • Japan's prime minister is considering another state of emergency for the Tokyo area, with cases at record levels and a vaccine rollout more than a month away.

Pacific power | Australia is moving to boost ties with small island nations off its eastern coastline, pushing back against China's sway in the Pacific Ocean as the virus hinders travel. As Jason Scott reports, the battle for influence comes after China hit Australia with damaging trade reprisals following Canberra's decision to seek an independent investigation into the origins of the coronavirus.

  • China's foreign minister said outbreaks outside the country may have caused the pandemic, as scrutiny grows over the pathogen's origins.

Oil dilemma | Ministers from the OPEC+ oil cartel face a delicate dilemma when they meet today to decide whether to increase production. The alliance of producers led by Russia and Saudi Arabia will discuss if they can afford to boost output without derailing the recovery in crude prices since last spring's crash. As the pandemic rages on, threatening to further crimp oil demand, members including Saudi Arabia are sounding cautious about a February increase.

Oil pumping jacks, also known as "nodding donkeys," in the Udmurt Republic in Russia on Nov. 20.

Photo credit: Bloomberg

Laying low | Billionaire Ant Group co-founder Jack Ma skipped a taping of an African TV program he created, spurring speculation online about his whereabouts and the outcome of an investigation into his internet empire. Ma hasn't been seen in public since Chinese regulators torpedoed Ant's $35 billion IPO, then tightened fintech regulations and launched an antitrust probe of Alibaba Group — all in a span of days.

  • Chinese oil majors may be next in line for delisting in the U.S. after the New York Stock Exchange said last week it would remove the Asian nation's three biggest telecom companies.

What to Watch This Week

  • Leaders from the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council will travel to the Saudi city of Al-Ula for a meeting tomorrow which could ease a diplomatic rift with Qatar that's simmered since 2017.
  • Kim Jong Un is set to convene his first ruling party congress in five years, an event that should provide clues to how the North Korean leader plans to approach the incoming Biden administration.
  • As tens of thousands of farmers continue their month-long protest at the Delhi border, representatives are due to meet the federal government today to push for the repeal of three agriculture laws they say will adversely impact their livelihoods.

And finally ... The supermarket sticker shock threatened by a no-deal Brexit has been averted, but British shoppers may still find prices creeping higher. A raft of red tape plus new checks at the border could add $4.1 billion in costs for food importers (about an 8% increase), according to the U.K.'s Food and Drink Federation. Read more here, meanwhile, from Alan Crawford on why Britain can't escape its history and geography, even after Brexit.

Trucks disembark from the European Causeway ferry at the Port of Larne in the U.K. on Jan. 1.

Photographer: Mark Marlow/Bloomberg

 

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