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Putin’s dare

Balance of Power
Bloomberg

It was, as expected, a bit of a circus when Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny flew into Moscow last night from Berlin, where he'd spent months hospitalized after a nerve agent attack he's pinned on the Kremlin.

His plane was diverted from one airport to another, his supporters were briskly cleared away by security forces, and he was arrested shortly afterward.

European leaders were quick to condemn his detention, as was Jake Sullivan, incoming national security adviser to U.S. President-elect Joe Biden.

The Europeans are considering next steps, with renewed talk of sanctions. Navalny knew he was facing arrest and likely years in prison if he returned but wasn't deterred. It's a bid to give momentum to his cause, especially with Russian parliamentary elections in the autumn and a stuttering economy draining support for President Vladimir Putin.

Even so, the ball may be more in Putin's court. The arsenal for retaliation is limited and Europe has shown caution before on anything much beyond finger wagging (the ruble barely reacted to the news). Germany's Angela Merkel has been firm in her insistence that a key gas pipeline with Russia is not to be touched.

Biden will be less inclined than Donald Trump to give Putin a pass on his shenanigans. But there again Biden's options for action are limited. Detaining Navalny allows Putin to test the waters early on with the new U.S. administration.

Navalny, for his part, will likely sit in jail until at least Jan. 29, when there's a court decision due on a suspended fraud sentence. Authorities are now seeking a prison term, raising the prospect that Putin simply seeks to wait Navalny, and the international backlash, out. — Rosalind Mathieson

Masks of Navalny and Putin on sale at a souvenir stall in an underground passage in Saint Petersburg on Jan. 14.

Photographer: Olga Maltseva/AFP via Getty Images

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Global Headlines

Unusual times | Biden takes the presidential oath of office Wednesday in a ceremony reshaped by the pandemic and simmering threats of violence in Washington, casting a pall over the quadrennial celebration of American democracy. His swearing-in at the U.S. Capitol will come amid an unprecedented cordon of security and strict social distancing measures. A sea of 200,000 flags on the National Mall will stand in for the normally vast crowd.

  • Biden will take office with a Cabinet made up largely, if not entirely, of acting secretaries after circumstances combined to slow Senate confirmation of his nominees. Click here for more on which picks are likely to be in place first.
  • And read here about how Biden's team of financial regulators is taking shape.

Full steam ahead | With much of the world economy on its back, China's gross domestic product climbed more than expected last year after Beijing contained Covid-19 and provided monetary and fiscal stimulus. Emerging from the pandemic larger than when it started is a capstone to a dramatic year for the world's second-largest economy, initially hit by a slump and lockdowns.

  • The U.S told several Huawei suppliers it's revoking their licenses to work with the Chinese tech giant, Reuters reports.

Political casualty | Just days after overtures by Canada's Couche-Tard to French supermarket giant Carrefour came to light, any chance of a deal was quickly killed by opposition from the French government. With regional elections looming this year and a presidential vote in 2022, allowing France's biggest private employer to fall into foreign hands could have given nationalist politician Marine Le Pen and leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon a new avenue to attack President Emmanuel Macron.

Pandemic shutdown | The first large-scale lockdown in modern times that Chinese authorities imposed on Wuhan a year ago has become the go-to weapon around the world to slow the coronavirus. Even democratic governments that once balked at broadly limiting freedom of movement have found it a necessary evil.

  • Global gaps in access to vaccines are raising concerns the continued virus spread will breed more dangerous versions.
  • Beijing accused the U.S. of spreading "lies" after the Trump administration said it had new information suggesting the coronavirus might have emerged from a Chinese laboratory.

A stall sells coffee and food on a quiet street with closed shops in Soho, London. 

Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Showdown in Rome | Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte needs about a dozen votes in the Italian Senate to secure an outright majority. If he fails in a possible vote tomorrow, he could either continue for several weeks seeking to win over more lawmakers, forge a new coalition or eventually face fresh elections — all while battling to slow the pandemic and revive the economy.

What to Watch This Week

  • Merkel's successor as the head of her party, Armin Laschet, will need to strike the right tone with Biden and the European Union as he tries to also maintain engagement with China and Russia.

  • A United Nations-backed forum of Libyan representatives could vote today on a proposed method for selecting a new transitional government, potentially putting the OPEC member on a path to stability after a decade of conflict.

  • German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas is visiting Turkey today, as the EU and Ankara work to defuse tensions.

Thanks to all who responded to our pop quiz Friday, and congratulations to Jessica McCarroll, who was the first to name Saudi Arabia as the country whose leader unveiled a project for a linear city with no cars, roads or carbon emissions.

And finally ... Amid the economic collapse and the surge in the ranks of the jobless, the homeless and the hungry, the top 20% or so of American earners have been getting wealthier. Davide Scigliuzzo explains that they've been able to carry on their white-collar jobs from home and use the Federal Reserve's unprecedented emergency measures to refinance mortgages at record-low rates, purchase second homes to get away from cities and watch the value of the stocks and bonds in their investment accounts surge.

Community of beach houses on the South Carolina coast. 

Photographer: Edwin Remsberg/VWPics/Universal Images via Getty Images

 

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