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China’s edge

Balance of Power
Bloomberg

Just days before Joe Biden is inaugurated as U.S. president, he's likely to get a stark reminder of the sheer size of one of his biggest geopolitical and economic challenges.

China on Monday will release its 2020 gross domestic product data. In a year when the pandemic raged globally, savaging businesses and jobs, China may be the only major economy to have avoided a contraction. A Bloomberg survey of economists forecasts growth to have come in at 2.1% (and tips a further 8.2% rise this year).

As this story points out, that should ensure China's share of the world economy rose at the fastest pace this century.

Biden inherits trade tensions that he will need to navigate with President Xi Jinping. The Trump administration has just blacklisted two more Chinese companies — smartphone manufacturer Xiaomi and China National Offshore Oil Corp. — in a final push to pressure Beijing before Biden takes over.

There's no appetite among the American public to substantially soften the tone with Beijing, and the Democrats, worried about the declining state of human rights in parts of China, wouldn't want to anyway.

But the reality also for Biden is that China is roaring back as many other economies, including America, still struggle. Beijing is seeking to quickly deepen economic ties with Asia and Europe (where it just signed an investment treaty).

Even as some countries are wary of China's motives and actions, and worried about its crackdown in places like Hong Kong, its sheer economic size makes it a country that cannot be ignored. That means Biden will need to engage with Beijing, even as he too pressures it to change. — Rosalind Mathieson

Shipping containers at Yangshan Deepwater Port in Shanghai on Monday. 

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

Click here for this week's most compelling political images and tell us how we're doing or what we're missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

Global Headlines

Economic vision | Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal is the opening salvo in a legislative battle that could be prolonged by a go-big price tag and the inclusion of measures, like more than doubling the federal minimum wage, opposed by many Republicans. Still, the plan has elements that would likely appeal to enough moderates to gain favor in the Senate — including a $400 billion effort to contain the coronavirus and facilitate the economy's reopening, as well as $1,400 in additional direct stimulus payments, Erik Wasson reports. It includes $130 billion to speed school reopenings.

  • Click here for more on how the timing for both Donald Trump's impeachment trial and legislation to provide more Covid relief largely depends on maneuvering by three veteran tacticians in Congress: the Senate's Democratic and Republican leaders and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

  • Trump, meanwhile, is having trouble finding a legal team to defend him.

Fortress Washington | Ahead of Biden's inauguration, downtown Washington increasingly looks like it's preparing for war. A huge swath of the area is blocked off, patrolled by uniformed National Guard forces as part of a buildup not seen since the Civil War. And the capital is getting even more fortified as federal, state and local officials brace for a worst-case scenario of violence tied to the Jan. 20 swearing-in ceremony.

  • Trump plans to fly to his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida the morning of Biden's inauguration, where several current White House staff are expected to keep working for him or son-in-law Jared Kushner, Jennifer Jacobs and Saleha Mohsin report.
  • Lawmakers from both parties are demanding investigations into how a mob of Trump supporters managed to overwhelm security at the Capitol, including whether they got any assistance from inside the building.

German contest | Delegates from Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union begin a virtual meeting today to elect a new party leader in a ballot with implications for all of Europe. The winner, to be announced tomorrow, will take the helm as polls show the CDU with a strong lead going into federal elections this fall. But polls also show little voter enthusiasm for the three candidates on offer, raising the prospect that the leader of the CDU's Bavarian sister party, Markus Soeder, will be tapped instead to run as Merkel's successor, Arne Delfs reports.

Frightening benchmark | The world, led by the U.S., is about to cross a threshold of 2 million people killed by Covid-19, and there's little sign the numbers will taper anytime soon. With the rollout of vaccines slow from Asia to America — Biden has called it a "dismal failure" — the odds of controlling the outbreak before the middle of the year at the earliest are slim.

Cars line up at a Covid-19 drive-thru testing site in the parking lot of Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.

Photographer: Bing Guan/Bloomberg

Check out our Virus Update that is refreshed throughout the day.

Under fire | Rebel members of U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party are threatening his leadership by demanding that he chart a clear path out of the lockdown that's damaging an economy at risk of falling into a double-dip recession, Tim Ross and Kitty Donaldson write.

What to Watch

  • Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is racing to forge a new parliamentary majority to stay in power after a junior ally abandoned him in the middle of the virus crisis.

  • Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, one of Africa's longest-serving rulers, took an early election lead over his main rival, pop star-turned-politician Bobi Wine.

  • Poland's Supreme Court is due to rule today whether to send a businessman who is a Falun Gong practitioner to China for trial on financial crimes.

Pop quiz, readers (no cheating!). The leader of which country unveiled a $500 billion project for a city with no cars, roads or carbon emissions? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net

And finally ... Authorities in Brazil's Amazon region have imposed a curfew and started airlifting patients to other states because of severe shortages of a vital weapon in the coronavirus fight: oxygen. As Julia Leite and Martha Beck explain, with a sharp rise in cases and patients dying of asphyxia, both private and public hospitals — especially in the capital Manaus — are scrambling to open new beds and find supplies.

Members of SOS Funeral carry a coffin at the Sao Francisco cemetery in Manaus.

Photographer: Andre Coelho/Getty Images South America

 

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