Biden’s stimulus plan could finish what Obama started

Follow Us Get the newsletter Today's Agenda Bonds aren't worried about Biden's stimulus plan. Trump's got money troubles awaiting him. America must not go the way of Rome or Weimar Germany. Holiday sales were shockingly good. It's Not the Bond Vigilantes, Stupid Two James Carville-isms from the early 1990s have had remarkable staying power: "It's the economy, stupid" and Carville's wish to be reincarnated as the bond market because it can "intimidate everybody." Since Bill Clinton's election in 1992, every new Democratic president has vowed to fix the economy. But President-elect Joe Biden may be the first not to have to worry about that bond market in doing so. Biden has proposed a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package that may be most notable for not being the biggest such proposal of all time. That would be last year's Cares Act, which topped $2 trillion. Presidents Clinton and Obama fretted about the bond-market and political reactions to much smaller spending plans. Cares rendered such worries obsolete. Republicans helped pass it, and the bond market didn't raise a peep. Nor did it protest when the same Republicans helped pass another $900 billion package last month. True to form, bonds snoozed right through Biden's announcement of his plan, writes John Authers. Carville's bond vigilantes are in retirement, even if Republican deficit worries have returned. And it's a lucky thing: The economy needs all the help it can get. Covid-19 still rages out of control, shutting down spending around the world. Biden's plan is a good one, Bloomberg's editorial board writes, even if it is a smidgen generous in offering $1,400 direct payments on top of the $600 checks Congress recently approved (though some on the left complain Biden should have just offered a round $2,000). But those checks might help the plan win some Republican support, which could be critical in a divided Senate. Biden could even finish a job Barack Obama started but couldn't complete due to worries about deficits: heal the wounds of the Great Recession. As Karl Smith writes, the economy never fully recovered from that disaster. It was starting to do so until President Donald Trump's trade war and coronavirus hit. Strong relief, including aid to state and local governments, would do the trick. On top of this whopping package, Biden is also promising more spending down the road on infrastructure and other long-term projects. Clearly the Democratic Party that delivered a balanced budget under Clinton and sequestration under Obama has stopped worrying about being labeled big spenders, Jonathan Bernstein writes. Because of Carville's two dicta, only the first still holds true today. Further Biden Stimulus Reading: Biden can also help the economy in the long run by reforming education and immigration. — Bloomberg's editorial board  Stimulus will likely keep weakening the dollar, pressing upward on inflation. — Marcus Ashworth  Paid Post There's a reason over 2.5 million people start their day with Morning Brew — the daily email that delivers the latest news from Wall Street to Silicon Valley. Business news doesn't have to be dry and dense...make your mornings more enjoyable, for free. Check it out. Morning Brew What's Next for Trump? Since Teddy Roosevelt's failed stab at re-election in 1912, America's ex-presidents have generally contented themselves with easy retirements spent golfing, painting, house-building and speech-giving. Trump seems likely break that tradition, aside from the golfing part, with an eye to running again in 2024. One motivating factor could be that he faces a wildfire of financial problems when he leaves office, making a return to his old job of putting his name on things much less comfortable, writes Tim O'Brien. Keeping his supporters riled up to a feverish, money-giving pitch is just good business.   His earliest post-presidency job will be defending himself in impeachment, which Noah Feldman writes can be done after somebody leaves office. A conviction could be followed by a permanent ban on serving again, which would force that retirement after all. What's Next for America? At the moment, Trump still has a fairly deep well of support, including a sizable group of people who would have been just fine with him overthrowing Biden's duly elected government. This is pretty troubling! Trumpism's threat to democracy harkens back to the last days of the Roman and Weimar republics, writes Andreas Kluth. To counteract this, we must keep deflating Trump's Big Lie that he is the rightful president and keep reaffirming the importance of the republic, or we will lose it. We also have to keep cracking down on white-supremacist terrorists, including those who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 and those plotting further attacks, writes Bloomberg's editorial board. We must also get to the bottom of what happened last week, no matter what sort of troubling dirt we unearth. Many of the tools for fighting this new War on Terror will look a lot like those we use to fight the other one, writes James Stavridis, including better information-gathering and -sharing and the use of hard and soft power. Telltale Charts Thanks to everybody being online all the time, holiday sales were actually really good last year, writes Sarah Halzack.   The early state leaders in the race to vaccinate Americans offer some lessons in best practices, writes Justin Fox.  An SEC probe is just the latest example of how far Exxon has fallen from its former glory, writes Liam Denning. Further Reading Air travel could bounce back quicker than you think. — Brooke Sutherland The Transportation Department should mandate face coverings on all flights right away. — Adam Minter  Biden's SEC should update and strengthen its system for reporting corporate events. — Michelle Leder  JPMorgan Chase's bottom line in the latest quarter was helped by a windfall that's probably not replicable. — Brian Chappatta  To make social media giants care about user privacy, regulators should target their algorithms. — Cathy O'Neil  A new presidency gives both China and the U.S. a chance to reset relations to something more cooperative. — Minxin Pei  ICYMI The new Covid variant will likely be the dominant one in the U.S. by March. Sick patients over the age of 80 may face higher risk from Covid vaccination. Apple's bringing back magnetic charging on its MacBook Pros. Kickers Astronomers find the brightest quasar on record, equivalent to 600 trillion suns. (h/t Ellen Kominers) What the NBA bubble reveals about how travel and sleep affect performance. Higher coffee intake connected to lower prostate cancer risk. Sea shanties have roots in Black work songs. Correction: A link in yesterday's ICYMI incorrectly described the charges against a man accused of hitting Capitol police with a fire extinguisher.  Note: Please send helicopters and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook.   Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. 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