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Five Things - Europe
Bloomberg

Good morning. Lockdown measures are getting stricter in Europe, Joe Biden unveiled a Covid relief package and software bellwether SAP forecast a tough first half. Here's what's moving markets.

Extended Lockdowns

France will extend the curfew measures in place across the country as it works to stem the tide of Covid-19 infections, and raised the prospect of a new lockdown. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, meanwhile, wants to tighten the country's lockdown as confirmed cases since the start of the pandemic surged past the 2 million mark. There is indeed growing evidence that the pandemic is sweeping across the region once again. In the U.K., Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing risks to his leadership without a clear path for the country to exit lockdown, while London will get only a tenth of the vaccines the government has secured despite the severe pressure the capital's hospitals are under.

Relief Package

President-elect Joe Biden will ask for $1.9 trillion for a Covid-19 relief package, a request likely to face Republican opposition over Democratic priorities like state and local government aid. The plan also includes more stimulus checks, expanded jobless benefits and further vaccinations and virus-testing programs. Meanwhile, outgoing President Donald Trump is struggling to find lawyers to represent him ahead of his impeachment trial in the Senate, with his team from the previous proceedings among those declining to take on the case this time. At present, however, it remains unclear when the trial will start or what form it will take. In the meantime, Trump has reconciled with former strategist Steve Bannon.

Caution

Germany's SAP has said its annual cloud and software sales are likely to decline in 2021 as the economic impact of the pandemic continues to weigh through the first half of the year. The guidance from a bellwether like SAP injects some caution ahead of the start of earnings season proper, with questions starting to be raised on when an upset may be in store for stocks as Treasury yields rise. Still, investor bets on a global economic bounce, which is starting to fuel gains for stocks left behind in last year's rally, bode well for Europe's stock market in 2021.

Policy

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said "now is not the time" to be talking about exiting ultra-easy monetary policy and pledged the central bank will give plenty of notice before scaling back its bond-buying program. His comments came after minutes from the European Central Bank's latest policy meeting showed the Governing Council unanimously agreed that additional monetary stimulus was needed, though economists don't think anything further will be required. Meanwhile, Biden's picks for his economic team indicate a focus on economic inclusion, with two officials with experience on working to close the U.S. racial wealth gap.

Coming Up…

European and U.S. stock-futures are pointing lower and Asian equities fell as investor pore over the details of Biden's much-anticipated plan, with attention shifting to how much of the plan will make it through Congress. U.K. GDP numbers will be in focus and the European earnings calendar is relatively quiet, so attention is likely to turn to the first salvo of U.S. bank earnings from JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

Global consumer staples stocks are beginning the new year as they ended the old -- on the back foot. An MSCI Inc. gauge of worldwide household product, packaged food and retail company stocks has slumped to a more than 12-year relative low against a broader global equity benchmark. With many countries having already started vaccination programs against the still-spreading coronavirus, investors are continuing to shun defensive names in favor of stocks more geared toward an economic recovery. The staples index is down about 2% this year, compared to a mirror image 2% rise in the MSCI World. It lagged by about 8% in 2020. The underperformance might not be enough to get an absolute return investor excited but could start to attract fund managers with a mandate to remain fully invested in stocks who are worried about an imminent reversal in the record rally. They will remember how much staples outperformed in March.

Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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