| Less than a year since the coronavirus began ravaging the world, the first Covid shots are raising hopes for wiping the pandemic from the face of the earth. They're the best, and perhaps only, way to eliminate infectious disease: Smallpox has been eradicated and polio is on the brink, with just two countries where transmission persists. But global vaccine campaigns take time—usually decades—suggesting that even with the latest technologies, money and might behind the unprecedented global drive to knock out Covid-19, the disease is unlikely to be eliminated any time soon. "I would be surprised to see an actual eradication of this virus now that it's all over the world," said Walter Orenstein, associate director of the Emory Vaccine Center in Atlanta and former head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's immunization program. "I'd be shocked, given how contagious it is." Snags in supply and distribution have already arisen in the opening days of the U.S. campaign, and the U.K., the first Western country to begin immunizing, vaccinated just 137,000 people in its first week. Meanwhile, Europe has yet to start inoculations, and probably won't do so until after Christmas. A good comparison to Covid might be polio, an intestinal virus that sometimes causes permanent, severe disease. Polio is similar to Covid in that only a minority of infected people—about one in 100—become extremely ill.  People line up for smallpox vaccinations outside a hospital in the Bronx after an outbreak in New York City in 1947. Photographer: Bettmann/Getty Images That's created one of the problems anticipated in widespread Covid vaccination: People who don't believe they're vulnerable to the disease may not want to be vaccinated, even though it may benefit others by keeping hospital intensive-care units free and possibly preventing transmission of the disease. An important difference with polio, however, is that it can cause severe disease in young children, leaving them with lifelong paralysis, Orenstein said. That's unlike Covid, which mainly strikes the elderly and chronically ill. That's left some portions of the public indifferent. "We're getting more than a death a minute—on some days two deaths a minute," he said. "It's very disturbing to see the lack of concern in other people." To defeat Covid, "we've got to convince people to take the vaccine," said Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. government infectious-disease specialist, in an interview. "If you have a highly effective vaccine and only 50% of the people take it, you're not going to have the impact that you'd need to essentially bring a pandemic down to such a low level that it's no longer threatening society. And that's the goal of a vaccine, the same way we did with measles, the same way we did with polio, the same way the world did with smallpox." When the measles vaccine was introduced, some people believed the disease was trivial, Orenstein said, which is similar to current misconceptions about Covid. Seeing leaders like U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence receive the vaccine "would be important," he said. Pence, along with more than a million others, got shots by Dec. 18. So far, Trump has yet to step up.—John Lauerman and James Paton | 
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