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Of course there’s a new virus variant, because 2020

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Today's Agenda

Virus Gets Unwelcome Update

For months, human scientists have been busy working on vaccines to fight the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19. But the virus has been a busy little scientist, too, constantly working on new and better ways to infect humans. 

To that end, the virus has already mutated thousands of times, with an assist from all the humans giving it many chances to reproduce and evolve. But one new mutation, identified recently in the U.K., is causing more alarm than usual, because officials suggest it may have made the virus easier to transmit. This has led to strict shutdowns in London and other affected areas and travel restrictions to and from the rest of Europe. Such moves are crucial for public health, but they further erode trust in Boris Johnson's government, writes Therese Raphael, especially coming after a period of relative laxity that encouraged the virus to spread in the first place.

With Britain's economy already in bad shape and a no-deal Brexit now possible as soon as next week, the U.K. risks falling into a double-dip recession and suffering long-term economic damage, warns Mohamed El-Erian. Christmas lockdowns may be good news for U.K. grocers but are terrible for many other businesses, writes Andrea Felsted.

Still, this isn't just a U.K. thing: Other governments around the world face awful new winter surges of their own, mutated virus or no. And the key question is just how freaked out we should all be about Covid version, uh, 4,000-point-oh. Sam Fazeli suggests officials are right to keep an eye on this one, but there's no cause for panic. Those vaccines humans have worked on for months should still work. But we must remember the virus hasn't quit yet, either.

Further Pandemic Reading:

The Real Stimulus Winners Are the Friends We Made Along the Way

After approximately 75 years of on-again, off-again talks, Congress has finally agreed to more relief for the U.S. economy. And the final compromise may actually not be terrible (though it's hard to imagine anybody has yet read all 5,593 pages of the bill, which Congress got just hours ahead of a vote). Both sides, but especially the Democrats, did give up stuff they wanted in this bill, including desperately needed help for state and local governments. Natasha Sarin warns the deal will hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to respond quickly to crises. All in all, this relief doesn't go nearly far enough to solve the economy's problems, writes Mohamed El-Erian. President-elect Joe Biden will have to push for more, and quickly, and possibly at odds with a Republican-controlled Senate. 

Still, Democrats did at least get a fairly sizable package, writes Jonathan Bernstein, meaning everybody should come away feeling a little bit like a winner. Even President Donald Trump got a rare hard-fought legislative victory in the form of a sweetener for proprietors of fancy hotels. Wonder if he knows anybody like that?

And this deal helps a broader array of Americans than past stimulus efforts that targeted narrow constituencies in the Midwest, writes Conor Sen. For that we can thank the center of American political gravity shifting from the Rust Belt to the Sunbelt suburbs.

What's Next in the SolarWinds Hack

Bill Barr spent his second tour as attorney general studiously not angering his boss. He is now making up for lost time. Today he scored a Trump-annoying trifecta, declining to appoint special counsels to investigate either Hunter Biden or Trump's election-fraud fantasies. Perhaps most hurtfully, he agreed Russia was behind the massive SolarWinds breach that exposed hundreds of companies and government agencies. Trump has refused to admit Russia's involvement or even that the hack is a big deal. Biden will have to do much better, writes Bloomberg's editorial board. America's cybersecurity capabilities must be modernized and better-staffed. And the old approach of simply adding layers of bureaucracy won't cut it.   

Russia did get a bit of a taste of its own medicine recently, as investigative journalists used hacked data to help identify the government-affiliated agents who tried to poison Alexei Navalny, writes Leonid Bershidsky. Russia's deep-rooted corruption makes its leadership vulnerable to people using its own tactics against it.

Further Russian-Hack Reading: Trump's incompetence keeps hurting America, most recently with the SolarWinds hack and a botched vaccine rollout. — Tim O'Brien  

Telltale Charts

This has been an unusually terrible year to be a contrarian investor, writes John Authers.

The oil market is still a long, long way from getting back to normal, writes Julian Lee

Further Reading

It's been a blockbuster year for banks, and the stars are aligned for a repeat in 2021. — Elisa Martinuzzi 

But it was an awful year for struggling clothing chains and malls, many of which will never recover. — Sarah Halzack 

Here's some financial advice unique to the end of 2020. — Barry Ritholtz 

Here are my 15 favorite nonfiction books of the year. — Stephen Carter 

Don't be afraid to ask for a raise in a pandemic. — Abadesi Osunsade 

ICYMI

Here's how soon you can expect stimulus checks.

Elon Musk is Bitcoin-curious.

Tesla's skyrocketing stock has minted retail millionaires.

Kickers

Maybe there's no dark matter after all.

The universe is expanding faster than expected.

Gut bacteria may be making you depressed.

An oral history of the Bed Bath & Beyond coupon.

Note: Please send coupons and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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