| "When things go back to normal." I've heard that phrase time and time again this year; I've even used it myself. Looking back through my playlists from March and April, I named one "Corona I" and another "Corona II." In case you can't tell, I am not exactly creative with these titles; I often name playlists after a single moment, trip or event. Each one captures a couple of weeks of my life. Because life during the pandemic feels so limited, so fraught, so redundant and so unusual, we assume it's just a phase. Life will snap back when this is over. But here we are, nine months after "Corona II," and my hometown is experiencing record case numbers. This is not to say we will live this way forever, but there is also no going backwards. There are certain behaviors we will carry with us, and some changes that are irreversible. To that end, I am going to devote this newsletter to a few thoughts on the year ahead. I reserve the right to be wrong. Please respond with your own predictions, so that I may share them in the new year! Apple + Amazon will make a much bigger push into podcasts (and audio in general). Spotify's value soared from about $27 billion at the start of the year to more than $60 billion today, based largely on its investment in podcasting. While there are still a lot of skeptics when it comes to this strategy, that kind of jump tends to get the attention of technology giants that don't like to miss the next big thing. Apple, of course, didn't miss it. It helped create podcasting. But it's done almost nothing to innovate over the last 15 years. Nor has Amazon's Audible, which has been talking about podcasts for more than a decade but is still seen as an app for audiobooks. Both companies are starting to invest more in, in original series and marketing, and I'd expect that to continue. Spotify will find a way to charge you for podcasts. The whole reason Spotify is investing in podcasts is to create a new business where record labels don't collect a huge share of its sales. Spotify says podcasting will be a big advertising business, but that's a long-term play. Dollars shift from radio to online audio slowly and Spotify is still, at its core, a subscription company. They've seen the failure of Luminary and know a standalone podcast app is a bad idea, but if you could offer a service at $12 a month that comes with all the goodness of Spotify AND podcasts without ads? They could argue the increase is only for podcasts and keep that money away from the music folks. (They would presumably have to share it with podcasters, but give up a smaller percentage.) Netflix Inc. will finally make a splash in something new. Anytime someone asks Netflix Chairman Reed Hastings about his interest in a new area, be it news, sports, gaming or music, he demurs that he sees a huge opportunity in his existing business. This is undeniable considering that Netflix is on pace to grow by 34 million customers this year (adding about $5 billion in sales). But Netflix is starting to nibble in new business areas, including consumer products, podcasts and interactive entertainment (close to gaming). Considering the company's belief that the pandemic pulled forward a lot of the demand for its product, that would suggest it foresees slower growth in the year ahead. What better time than to distract investors with a new opportunity? (This one may be a year or two premature. I suspect Netflix will spend 2021 talking about animation and foreign language shows.) Disney will steal everyone's thunder — fairly and unfairly. Disney+ was the fastest-growing new streaming service in 2020, and you can expect that will continue in the new year with shows from Marvel Studios and the ever-expanding Star Wars universe. The absurd overperformance of Disney+ means everyone uses it as a measuring stick for HBO Max, Peacock and every other streaming service. They will not be able to live up to that standard, but they don't have to in order to succeed. Movie theaters will survive. Theater chains may declare bankruptcy. Employees will lose their jobs. But after all the hyperventilating about the future of the movie business, we will probably end up where it was always headed: fewer screens, the theater as an event and more movies at home. Get ready for more commerce on social media! YouTube and Instagram are prioritizing selling you things because it's a way to generate money that isn't coming from ads and snag a bigger piece of business from major celebrities. It's also a way to try and hold off Amazon's rise as an advertising business. The concert business will come back in 2021, but it won't be at full strength. Much like sports leagues and movie theaters, concert venues and promoters can't hang on without playing forever. They are going to be the last ones that get to try this, but we've already seen experiments with shows this year. Many acts, including Justin Bieber and The Weeknd, have already picked dates for 2021. Now we just have to see who follows through with it. And a few from readers - WarnerMedia will announce 1 to 3 Harry Potter spin-offs as HBO Max series, Justin Connolly.
- Not all of the streaming will make it through 2021, as we learn we don't need that many subscriptions, Aron Levitz.
- Looney Tunes enjoy a Pokemon-like resurgence with a new generation as characters join Fortnite leading up to Space Jam 2 release, Hal Koss.
- Phoebe Bridgers takes the leap from critical darling to full-blown pop star (and cracks Bloomberg's Pop Star Power Rankings), Skrrt Rambis.
And a bonus one from Taylor Lorenz that I really like: all the journalists who are now self-publishing newsletters and podcasts will realize just how hard it is to be an influencer. Programming note: I am going to do my best to take a few days off between now and the end of the year, so this will be the last newsletter until 2021. You can see my picks for the best albums, TV shows and podcasts of the year at the bottom. We've just survived a year unlike any that came before it, and I for one am very grateful for my family and my friends. I am also grateful to all of you for reading. Since we relaunched this newsletter as "Screentime," it has grown by more than 10,000 readers and several issues are among my most-read stories on Bloomberg's website. -- Lucas Shaw The best of Screentime (and other stuff) | 
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