| Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. As President-elect Joe Biden continues to put his cabinet together, the contrast with Donald Trump's process four years ago could hardly be sharper. Wednesday, Biden rolled out his nominee for secretary of transportation, Pete Buttigieg, and floated some names for education secretary. That's how to do it: Send up a trial balloon, gauge the public reaction and press forward. Meanwhile, when no consensus emerges, Biden doesn't appear to worry too much about appearances. No attorney general so far? That's okay. Take the time to get it right, even if some pundits might say he looks indecisive or open to bullying by party factions (while in reality he's managing the party coalition to keep everyone on board). That said, this is the easy part, and its importance is massively overrated. Buttigieg might be a good selection or a bad selection, but I'll remind everyone of what I said at the beginning of this process: Look in and down. In, to the White House staff, where Biden seems to be doing a good job, and down, to sub-cabinet nominees, where it's too early to tell. For Biden, those sub-cabinet spots will be the real test. There are hundreds of important positions. Without Senate-confirmed nominees in these slots, presidents lose a major source of influence over the departments and agencies. Trump didn't know or care about that; he convinced himself that he'd be more powerful by leaving positions vacant, only to wind up frustrated when he couldn't get the government to do what he wanted. Biden knows better, but unless he makes nominations a priority it won't happen. Of course, Biden also may face an unprecedented roadblock in the Senate if Republicans retain their majority after the two Georgia run-off elections in January. I continue to think that Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will allow the process to work normally for most cabinet positions, meaning that Biden's nominees will receive committee hearings and, unless strong opposition develops, confirmation votes on the Senate floor. And if there are floor votes, the nominees will probably be confirmed. But the concern is that McConnell will shut things down after that. Never mind the norm that presidents are entitled to the personnel they want, or the importance of a smoothly functioning government, or even the ability of the Senate to influence the executive branch through the confirmation process. If McConnell controls the floor, there's a good chance he'll try to prevent Biden from staffing his administration. He might not be willing to block positions such as secretary of state or attorney general, but he'll assume that the media won't care if assistant secretary for this and deputy secretary of that remain empty. Which means that Team Biden should be thinking hard about how to fight back. Are there any Republican senators (Mitt Romney? Lisa Murkowski?) who might be persuaded to oppose such a blockade? Are there legislative weapons available? Is there a public strategy with any chance of working? I strongly suspect most of Biden's nominees would be confirmed, even in a 52-48 Republican-majority Senate, if they came up for a vote. But forcing a vote is another matter. Perhaps Biden will be lucky and Democrats will wind up reaching 50 seats after all. But if not, personnel is likely to be a major early battle, and the White House will need to have a strategy beyond nice-sounding sentiments about restoring cooperation and compromise. Either way, Biden will need to process nominees quickly so there's something for the Senate to act on if it is willing. 1. Matt Grossmann talks about Biden's cabinet with Christina Kinane and Timothy Gill. 2. Norm Ornstein on the narrow majorities in Congress. 3. Erica Borghard and Jacquelyn Schneider on the hack into U.S. government systems. 4. Juan Javier Negri at Mischiefs of Faction on opposition strategy in Venezuela. 5. Stuart Rothenberg on party extremists. 6. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Liam Denning on Biden's energy and climate plans. 7. Craig Stirling on the evidence that trickle-down economics doesn't work. 8. And Margaret Sullivan on the media and Trump after Jan. 20. Quite right. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. | 
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