This is the last Asia edition of Five Things for 2020. We'll be back Jan. 4. Trump vetoes the defense policy bill. EU and U.K. on the brink of clinching Brexit deal. China looks at cutting inequality to grow the economy. President Donald Trump on Wednesday vetoed the $740.5 billion U.S. defense policy bill, setting up a clash with Congress, which is poised to override him for the first time. The bill passed both chambers with enough support to reach the two-thirds threshold to overrule Trump. Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi immediately agreed with Trump's earlier attempt to boost stimulus payments, but House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told fellow Republicans that she would fail to pass the bill. The hold up just adds to a growing list of uncertainties for investors, and may spur some to cash out. Asian stocks were poised to rise after U.S. equities eked out gains and the pound climbed as the outline of a post-Brexit trade deal was reached. Equity futures were higher in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. Uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's demand for changes to pandemic relief legislation weighed on sentiment in the U.S. session, with the S&P 500 finishing up just 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 indexes set intraday record highs. The gap between 5- and 30-year Treasury yields widened Wednesday to a four-year high. Britain and the EU look set to seal a historic post-Brexit trade accord in time for Christmas after negotiators reached the outline of a deal that includes a compromise on fishing rights. The negotiating teams were still working late on Wednesday to finalize the wording of the agreement, which will formally complete Britain's separation from the bloc — almost five years after the 2016 referendum. The document still needs to be approved by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the EU, but officials on both sides hope to make an announcement by Thursday at the latest. The pound soared on the development. In less hopeful news, Johnson imposed tougher regulations in England to contain the coronavirus. A growing number of borrowers in the Asia-Pacific region are getting loans whose interest rates are linked to meeting sustainability goals, in one of the few bright spots for a corporate lending market depressed by the pandemic. The market for so-called sustainability-linked loans in Asia Pacific excluding Japan took off in 2017, and borrowers have steadily increased since then. Eighteen firms signed a total of $7.4 billion of such debt so far in 2020, compared with 16 companies raising $7.5 billion last year. Margins on the debt rise when a borrower misses green or social targets. Still, buying the debt may not be all that ethical. China's new pledge to fix the "demand side" of the economy has prompted expectations the leadership will implement more egalitarian policies to stimulate consumer spending. It's a departure from the Chinese Communist Party's recent focus on "supply-side" changes, which involve upgrading industry and cutting capacity in bloated sectors. Although China is the only major economy set to grow this year, the shift signals that the ruling party is worried about an uneven recovery, where household spending has lagged behind investment in real estate and infrastructure. Meanwhile, the shape of the global recovery may end up coming from another alphabet. What We've Been ReadingThis is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours: And finally, here's what Tracy's interested in today'Twas the night before Christmas, and markets were still, They were waiting for vaccines, or a stimulus bill; Positions were neutral ahead of the break, In the hopes that that the virus might slow its gait. Fund managers were drawing accounts to a close Content with the beta positions they chose; And dealers were marking their books for the year, Derisking balance sheets as reg'lators neared. When out in the market there arose something funny, I sprang out of bed to try to make money; I looked up breakevens and cried out "uh oh!" Hit USGGBE10 and then I hit . Expectations of prices were suddenly rising, Not quite what economists had been advising! Tail risk was coming over the horizon, My portfolio needed complete re-apprisin'. "Buy BITCOIN! Buy TIPS, and FLOATING-RATE LOANS!" '"Dump TREASURIES AND BONDS, we don't need any of those! Watch out for rate hikes that tighten conditions, Do what you can to rotate positions." I gasped for my breath, and abruptly awoke, It was just a dream, it was all one big joke! This time isn't different, I cried with delight, Happy risk-taking to all, buy SPX! And good night! You can follow Tracy Alloway on Twitter at @tracyalloway. |
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