| Pity the movie studio chief. Imagine for a moment that you are Ann Sarnoff, the head of Warner Bros., the venerable Hollywood studio founded in 1923 by Harry, Albert, Sam and Jack Warner. Sarnoff took the job running the studio not long after it was acquired by AT&T, a phone company with little interest in the norms and traditions that have governed Hollywood for decades. As if the task of overhauling a 97-year-old studio for the internet age weren't hard enough, Sarnoff must now respond to a global pandemic that has rendered it all but impossible to release movies. At this moment, Sarnoff is debating what to do about "Wonder Woman 1984," the sequel to the hit movie based on the DC superhero. (She is not acting alone. Her boss, Jason Kilar, was in LA this week and has strong opinions about the future of movies. Her deputies actually run the movie side since she oversees far more. But Warner Bros is her kingdom.) In the before times, Warner Bros. was going to release the movie in August. Most box office experts expected "Wonder Woman 1984" to be one of the year's biggest hits. But that was then and this is now. Warner Bros. already delayed the movie's release, first to October and then to Christmas Day. If they want to release the movie Christmas Day, they need to decide now so they can restart the marketing campaign. Sarnoff faces three choices: Option 1: Stick with the date, and release the movie in theaters as planned.The studio has already spent millions of dollars on advertising for its previous release dates, and would have the Christmas period all to itself. People are going to movie theaters in China and Japan, the two largest markets after the U.S. The reasons to proceed as planned end there. Warner Bros. tried this once before with "Tenet," the thriller from director Christopher Nolan. The movie did respectable business overseas, grossing close to $300 million, but it made just $55 million in the U.S. The film cost $200 million to produce and grossed just $350 million. Accounting for theaters' share of ticket sales and the cost of marketing, "Tenet" was a loser. "Wonder Woman 1984" also cost a reported $200 million to produce. It would need to gross triple that to even smell a profit. No movie has grossed $600 million this year, not even in China. It's one thing to lose money on "Tenet," a gamble on an original idea with no movie stars. It's another to lose money on "Wonder Woman 1984," a sure thing that is a cornerstone of the DC movie franchise. Option 2: Punt to next year.This is the safest choice. Warner Bros. has already moved it twice, so there's little harm in doing so again. All the other studios have abandoned 2020, and saved themselves the headache of dating, undating and redating a movie. While next summer is crowded with releases like "Fast & Furious 9," "Venom: Let There Be Carnage" and "Top Gun: Maverick," there is an opening in early June. However, there is no guarantee that movie theaters are open at full capacity by next summer. If Warner Bros. moves "Wonder Woman 1984," movie theaters around the U.S. are expected to close until 2021, which means a lot of theaters may close for good. Option 3: Release it for a week or two, and then shift it to HBO Max.Kilar has restructured WarnerMedia and fired staff with one goal in mind: building up HBO Max, its new streaming service. HBO Max has gotten off to a rocky start. Many people who already pay for HBO don't understand the difference between regular HBO and HBO Max, nor do they understand how to access the service. Amazon and Roku, the two leading set-top box providers, don't offer it. Few if any HBO Max originals have set the world on fire. While Warner Bros. has released a handful of movies on HBO Max, none of them is in the same league as "Wonder Woman 1984." Releasing the movie on HBO Max around the holidays would entice millions of people to sign up for the service. Once they get inside the app, they are going to like what they see. It has a deep and diverse library of movies and TV shows – the best programming of all the services (at least for a U.S. viewer). Warner Bros. could still give the movie a proper theatrical run in territories that have a better handle on the virus, many of which don't have access to HBO Max yet. Still, this is the definition of short-term pain for long-term gain. Movies like "Wonder Woman 1984" make more money in theaters than they do on streaming services. That's why studios have pushed almost all of their biggest titles into 2021. It's also why any producers or actors that stand to collect a share of the film's profits may oppose the move. The only way this works for WarnerMedia is if the company not only convinces millions of people to sign up for HBO Max because of "Wonder Woman 1984," but keeps them around. (Going all in on streaming, as Rich Greenfield would say.) Otherwise, it's a financial disaster. So, what would you do? – Lucas Shaw The best of Screentime (and other stuff) | 
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