| Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. We don't have a final result in the presidential election as I write, but what is certain is that Joe Biden won a majority of the votes. He has already cleared Hillary Clinton's plurality both in absolute votes and in the share of the two-candidate vote. And with plenty of California ballots left to count it's certain that his lead will increase. Nate Silver estimated on Wednesday that Biden will eventually win by about 7 million votes and about 4.3 percentage points. If that's true, it wasn't a particularly close election. Democrats have now won the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections, something no party has done before in U.S. history. This is also their fourth consecutive popular-vote victory; the last time that happened was the party's run from 1932 through 1948. So what should we make of that? For one thing, it's easy to overstate this accomplishment. The 2000 election was, for all practical purposes, a tie, with Democrats leading by only half a percentage point. And the margins overall have been slim. After Richard Nixon's narrow win in 1968, Republicans eventually won five out of six elections, four times besting all but one of the Democrats' margins in these more recent elections. But the real reason this seven-of-eight run isn't all that it seems is because the party's failure to win the 2000 and 2016 elections despite their pluralities probably made the other successes possible. A President Al Gore may well have been defeated in 2004; if not, and if the 2007-2009 recession began while he was in office, a Republican would likely have won big in 2008 and — well, who knows after that? The truth is that most of the elections over this span (including 2020) can be explained by fundamentals-based analysis that basically assumes no inherent advantage to either party. What Republicans should worry about is a more serious run of failure. Republican presidents — Donald Trump and George W. Bush — have now spent almost all of their last nine consecutive years below 50% approval. Add George H.W. Bush's final year, and that makes 10 of the last 13 Republican presidential years, with the only significant exception coming in the period after the Sept. 11 attacks (we can't know for sure, but it seems likely that George W. Bush was heading underwater by then). In other words: Whether or not Republicans have a popularity problem, they certainly seem to have a governing problem, one that at this point could be symbolized by Trump's utter inability to deal with the pandemic, or by the party's years-long attempt to dismantle the Affordable Care Act without having any alternative to offer. It is, of course, perhaps just the luck of events that dealt Republican presidents five of the last five recessions. And the Iraq War. And the coronavirus. But my suggestion to the party, if it has lost the presidency, is to spend some time trying to figure out why its presidents seem to have such a tough time in office. 1. Michael Heseltine at Mischiefs of Faction on partisanship and election administration. 2. Chiedo Nwankwor and Elor Nkereuwem on women's activism in Nigeria. 3. Dan Drezner on the silver linings of the Trump years. 4. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Noah Smith on Prop 22 in California. 5. And David Byler on what happened with the polls. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. | 
⊗⋗⋮〖~DownLoad!〗 2021 Initiation Full Movie Online released 2021. story: Whiton University unravels the night a star-athlete is murdered, k...
Post a Comment