What's happening? A titanic power struggle in Downing Street has left everyone guessing what it means for a Brexit deal. The Vote Leave influence in Downing Street looks to be waning only days before U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson needs to choose whether he wants a trade accord with the European Union. Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain, two of the prime minister's most senior advisers, are leaving Johnson's inner circle. Both were advocates of leaving the single market without a deal if it meant making significant concessions to the bloc. Dominic Cummings on November 13, 2020. Photographer: DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/AFP EU officials are trying to divine if the departures will lead to a change in policy, as Ian Wishart reports here. (Johnson's spokesman, James Slack, told reporters on Friday that Cummings's departure won't change the U.K.'s approach to the talks.) The EU has long been spooked by the risk that the architect of the successful Leave campaign in the 2016 EU referendum would scupper any agreement at the last moment. Indeed, the pound was up on Friday as traders expressed optimism that a deal is now more likely. But it isn't that simple. Events of the last week were not purely a fight over Brexit strategy—they were rather a raw power battle, and an argument over the shortcomings of government communications during the pandemic. Next week's deadline in the negotiations with the EU may have influenced the timing of the row, but it did not define it. Some things have not changed. The deadline hasn't budged: The U.K.'s membership of the EU single market expires at year-end, and any agreement to replace it needs to be struck and ratified in good time. Cummings will be in Downing Street until the year-end. Johnson still doesn't have a chief of staff. Had Brexiter Cain succeeded in getting that job, he and Cummings might have been in a stronger position to push for no deal. Equally, even as the pandemic takes its toll on the U.K. economy there isn't a pro-deal figure in post to push the prime minister to make unpalatable but necessary compromises with Brussels. David Frost, the U.K.'s chief negotiator, is also staying put. Like the prime minister, he wants a deal—but not at any price. The distractions of the past week may have only obscured the fact that Johnson still has to make his choice. Time, as well as space to maneuver, is running out. — Edward Evans Brexit in BriefWhat will the presidential election mean for a post-Brexit U.S.-U.K. trade accord? In other news this week: Beyond BrexitWatch Bloomberg Quicktake, our new streaming news service with a global view and an informed take. Click here for the latest maps and data on the spread of coronavirus. Sign up here for our coronavirus newsletter, and subscribe to our podcast. Want to keep up with Brexit?You can follow us @Brexit on Twitter, and listen to Bloomberg Westminster every weekday. Share the Brexit Bulletin: Colleagues, friends and family can sign up here. For full EU coverage, try the Brussels Edition. Like getting the Brexit Bulletin? Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and gain expert analysis from exclusive subscriber-only newsletters. |
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