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Biden will announce his coronavirus task force on Monday. Global Covid-19 cases hit 50 million. Turkey faces fresh turmoil. 

Biden Wins

President-elect Joe Biden is launching his transition effort and preparing a plan to curb the coronavirus pandemic while President Donald Trump weighs legal challenges and has so far refused to concede. In Trump's inner circle, recognition is growing that efforts to overturn Biden's victory will be futile, though. Biden called on Americans to put aside the divisiveness of the past four years in his victory speech. The former vice president won or is leading in states that would award him 306 electoral college votes, well above the victory threshold of 270. Meanwhile Vice President-elect Kamala Harris acknowledged her place as the first woman, the first Black person and the first Indian-American to serve in the role. And here's what to expect from Trump's final two months in office.

Market Open

Asian markets are ready to react to the election result after U.S. stocks sputtered on Friday. The dollar began the week with modest declines, extending last week's move, as markets continued to price in a future under Joe Biden. The Australian and New Zealand dollars climbed in early Monday trading. Turkey's lira rose after the nation's economy czar and central bank chief departed. Global equities are coming off the best week since April — they rose more than 7% last week — as technology shares outperformed. Biden's win may give a boost to emerging markets.

Turkey's Turmoil

Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, the son-in-law of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, unexpectedly resigned on Sunday, throwing the government's management of the economy into further confusion after the central bank chief was fired on Saturday following a crash in the lira. Albayrak cited health reasons for his decision to step down. The minister's resignation follows Erdogan's abrupt decision to appoint former Finance Minister Naci Agbal as central bank governor. Agbal is known for his opposition to Albayrak's policies over the last two years, a period when the lira lost nearly half of its value against the dollar.

Not 'Vibrant'

Singapore's economy is unlikely to pick up in a "very vibrant sort of way very soon" as key export markets in Europe and the U.S. face renewed coronavirus outbreaks, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said. While many sectors have shown improvement since lockdown measures were relaxed, some such as aviation, transport and tourism are likely to remain in "suspended animation" for some time, Lee said in a speech to members of his ruling party on Sunday. Singapore will allow some bars and nightclubs to re-open from next month as coronavirus cases in the city-state dwindle.

Berkshire's Buybacks

Warren Buffett might have just found his next elephant-sized deal: Buying back his own stock. Berkshire Hathaway spent $16 billion buying back its stock in the first nine months of 2020, more than triple its previous annual record. The repurchases even surpass many of Berkshire's biggest investments in recent years. The record buybacks, coupled with investments in Japanese trading houses and deals for natural gas assets, mark a shift from the start of the pandemic, when Buffett took a more cautious approach. Buffett chipped away at Berkshire's cash pile in the third quarter, with that war chest dropping slightly to $145.7 billion.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours:

And finally, here's what Tracy's interested in today

Last week, U.S. Treasuries experienced another market structure hiccup. That happened when high-frequency traders briefly retreated from making trades right around the time that early results were pointing towards re-election for Donald Trump. That exacerbated moves in government debt, according to market participants. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury jumped to 94 basis points on Tuesday before falling sharply on Wednesday, moving in a 22-basis point range that JPMorgan analysts point out is the widest since June. "Volatility midweek was aggravated by the brief, partial retreat of High Frequency Traders (HFT) from the interdealer market for Treasuries," they said.

Why does this matter? The U.S. Treasury market has had two big seizures in recent months, the first in September 2019's repo madness and the second in March 2020 when a bunch of levered trades blew up. The Federal Reserve's been paying close attention to the functioning of the market ever since. Randy Quarles, the Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision, even suggested last month that the sheer size of the market "may have outpaced the ability of the private market infrastructure to support stress of any sort there." On Thursday, Jerome Powell made a similar comment suggesting the central bank would be paying attention to "smooth market functioning" as well as financial conditions. I've written in this space before that the growing size of the U.S. Treasury market could actually force yields lower by introducing a new policy consideration for the Fed. One of the biggest things to come out of last week — besides a new U.S. president, of course — is confirmation that this is happening.

You can follow Tracy Alloway on Twitter at @tracyalloway.

 

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