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Bloomberg

Election counting under way, markets volatile, and big win for Uber and Lyft.

Tight race 

The winner of the 2020 presidential election remains uncertain this morning with counting of mail-in ballots in crucial swing states continuing. One thing is clear though: the so-called "Blue Wave" has not materialized, with President Donald Trump holding Florida and Texas and Democrats' prospects of taking control of the Senate evaporating. Trump falsely declared that he had won re-election and that he would ask the Supreme Court to intervene, saying "we want all voting to stop." 

Markets swing 

The uncertainty over the outcome of the election is making for a volatile session in markets, with S&P 500 futures swinging between a gain of 2.1% and a loss of 1.3%. The December contract was trading slightly higher by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time. Traders are rapidly unwinding their wagers on global reflation this morning as a divided Congress means it will continue to be hard to pass new stimulus measures. One bet that seems to be paying off is a large option position seeing less volatility in Treasuries in the wake of the election. 

Gig, Ant 

In California voters sided with Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc. in a question over their business model of employing drivers as independent contractors. Shares in both companies rose more than 14% in pre-market trading. On the other side of the world, problems for Jack Ma's Ant Group Co. are mounting after yesterday's shock halt to its planned IPO. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission plans to discourage lenders from using Ant's platforms, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially cutting one of the company's biggest sources of revenue

Virus

While the pandemic was certainly an issue for some voters yesterday, rising hospitalization rates in Florida and Ohio didn't stop Trump winning those states. Though there are some signs of the outbreak in Europe easing, with the German infection reproduction rate falling below 1, widespread restrictions remain in place across the continent. One piece of good news for parents is that there remains little evidence that children attending schools does anything to raise their risk of contracting the virus

Coming up...

It's payrolls week so we get ADP employment change data at 8:15 a.m. The September U.S. trade balance is at 8:30 a.m. October services and composite PMIs are at 9:45 a.m. with ISM non-manufacturing at 10:00 a.m. Oil market traders busy reacting to the election results will keep an eye on inventory data at 10:30 a.m. The U.S. officially withdraws from the Paris climate agreement today. Expedia Group Inc., Qualcomm Inc., and Fitbit Inc. are among the long list of companies reporting today. 

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Justina's interested in this morning

It's still a dangerous time to try to say anything about the election, but what's clear so far is that it's not the Blue Wave markets expected. The reflation trades are all fading: The Treasury curve is flattening with long-end yields dropping while inflation expectations are falling.

It makes sense as a correction for prior expectations for a clear-cut Democratic win. But from what I read in my inbox, expectations for another round of stimulus are not exactly dead-- they just might take longer. No party wants to see a re-accelerating pandemic wreak economic damage without any fiscal support.

There are other read-across that have been more straightforward. The solar ETF (with the apt ticker TAN) that has turned into something of a blue-wave proxy is down in pre-market. And the Chinese stock that sounds like "Trump wins big" in Mandarin jumped.

All in all, everything is...orderly so far? Normal? Hopefully this will not one of those posts I'll have to write an apologetic tweet for in a few hours.

Follow Bloomberg's Justina Lee on Twitter at @justinaknope

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