Header Ads

5 things to start your day

Five Things - Asia
Bloomberg

With the U.S. election too close to call, Biden nears 270 electoral votes and Trump is filing lawsuits. U.S. stocks and bonds rally. China's Xi reassures international business. 

Biden Edge

Joe Biden looks to be on the brink of winning the White House, but President Donald Trump is far from giving up. The Democrat is one state shy of the needed electoral votes after taking Wisconsin and Michigan, and said he is confident he will win once the remaining votes are counted. Meanwhile Trump opened a legal fight to stop the tallies in at least two states and claimed without evidence that he's being cheated from victory. Biden is leading in Nevada, while his campaign believes absentee votes in Georgia will push him over the top. Follow our blog and see live election results here.

Markets Frantic

Asian stocks looked set for gains after U.S. equities and bonds climbed, as investors showed confidence that the tightly contested election outcome would ensure key elements of the bull market remain intact. The S&P 500 rose more than 2% and the Nasdaq 100 surged more than 4% in its best rally since April. Equity futures rose in Japan and Hong Kong, and the offshore yuan advanced. The failure by the Democrats to clearly sweep Congress and the White House pares back bets that traders had made on a massive fiscal stimulus package. The dollar weakened against many of its major peers, while gold slipped. 

Open For Business

Chinese President Xi Jinping tried to re-assure international businesses that the nation is committed to open trade, amid concerns that the new "dual circulation" strategy will mean the world's second-largest economy is set to become more insular. China's new development structure is "definitely not a closed domestic circulation, but a more open dual circulation between overseas and domestic markets," Xi said at the opening of the China International Import Expo on Wednesday in Shanghai. His words were closely watched, given the backdrop of the U.S. election result and the shock withdrawal of Ant Group's stock-market debut.

Ant Squashed

China's move to abruptly halt the listing of Ant Group sends global investors a clear message: Any financial opening will only be done on terms that benefit Xi and the Communist Party. Suspending what would have been the world's biggest-ever IPO just two days before shares were set to trade showed once again that for Xi and the party, financial and political stability take precedence over ceding control of the economy — especially to a private company. In Beijing's view, allowing the IPO to go forward could effectively give Ant too much sway over the financial system. Here's everything you need to know about the shock move. 

Fed Match

The Reserve Bank of Australia's bond-buying spree is closing in on the Fed's, relative to the size of the economy. The plan to buy A$100 billion ($71.2 billion) in bonds over six months will kick off with the expected purchase of A$2 billion of government debt at maturities of 7 to 10 years at Thursday's auction. Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac, reckons the RBA's assets will swell to around A$550 billion, or 27.5% of gross domestic product. The Fed's balance sheet is sitting around 34% of GDP and most economists don't expect it to ramp up the pace of its asset purchases any time soon.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours:

And finally, here's what Tracy's interested in today

As Joe Biden appears to inch towards victory in the U.S. presidential election, investors find themselves attempting to price a new market risk: political gridlock. The prospect of a Biden presidency combined with a Republican Senate could make it far more difficult to push through the big fiscal stimulus which investors had thought might come with a "blue wave." Interestingly, as markets grapple with this new outcome, we see a new consensus forming. Political paralysis may be a good thing for risk assets, since it means Biden might not be able to push through corporate tax increases, for instance. Tech stocks could benefit since Biden's capital gains tax looks less likely.

Even the lack of fiscal stimulus could be a positive, since it means the chance of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve becomes ever more remote and the central bank might even step in with additional liquidity. You can see the market already pricing in this scenario with bets for future rate hikes falling and the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury dropping sharply on the day. If yields on U.S. Treasuries remain low, that also provides a foundation for stocks to rise. If bullish investors can't get fiscal stimulus, a political situation that largely maintains the status quo in markets might be the next best thing.

You can follow Tracy Alloway on Twitter at @tracyalloway.

 

Like getting this email?  Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and gain expert analysis from exclusive subscriber-only newsletters.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.

 

No comments