Want the lowdown on what's moving European markets in your inbox every morning? Sign up here. Good morning. Markets bask in in the glow of positive sentiment, Europe takes different approaches to virus restrictions and the U.K. is set to unveil spending plans. Here's what's moving markets. PositivityStock markets have been buoyed a triple-hitter of positive vaccine news, stronger U.S. economic data than expected and Janet Yellen's selection as President-elect Joe Biden's Treasury Secretary nominee. President Donald Trump even made an appearance to take credit for the stock gains after the Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 30,000 points for the first time. Tech analysts, however, are warning of excessive levels of optimism which may create insurmountable expectations for companies to meet, though mom-and-pop investors are doubling down and some investors think there is more upside yet. In further signs sure to foster worries about overheating, Bitcoin is hitting levels not seen since 2017 and Tesla's market value topped half-a-trillion dollars. Different ApproachesFrench President Emmanuel Macron announced a gradual easing of its national lockdown, though the country's restaurants will remain closed over the key festive period. On the flip side, German Chancellor Angela Merkel proposing tougher restrictions at odds with calls from regional leaders for a more lenient approach, while the government is said to be discussing further support for businesses effected by its lockdown. Meanwhile, Sweden's top epidemiologist poured cold water on the idea that herd immunity is helping the country to control the virus. In the U.S., health officials are working on guidance to shorten the recommended quarantine period. Sunak's ReviewU.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will unveil spending plans later, with an expectation of a hike in cash for public services in order to help the country contend with the fallout from the pandemic. He is also expected to provide more funding to help unemployed people find work and could provide some hints on what measures he'll take in the future to get the country's finances under control. The government said it will relax virus restrictions over Christmas to allow indoor meetings, by which time the new regional tier system will be in place. In the background, Brexit negotiations continue amid renewed warnings about the impact the U.K.'s exit from the European Union will have on industries from car manufacturing to Irish sausages. TransitionTrump's efforts to overturn the election result suffered another pair of blows as Pennsylvania and Nevada both certified Joe Biden's election victory, prompting Democrats to mock Trump's attempts to overturn the result with a reference to Monty Python. Biden is filling out his foreign policy team, seeking to calm international relations after a tumultuous period under Trump. The pick of Yellen is receiving a warm welcome and could point to the return of a strong-dollar policy which will buoy currency traders. It also sets up Biden to go big on stimulus, with Yellen expected to work closely with the Federal Reserve to help the economy -- even if her predecessor has left her with a smaller lending backstop. Coming Up…The European Central Bank's Financial Stability Review is due and the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting will come after markets close in Europe. Watch too for any reaction to the ECB signaling that the ban on bank dividends could be lifted next year, according to a Financial Times report. Europe's earnings agenda is relatively quiet, topped by industrial group Melrose Industries and outsourcer Babcock International. Oil continues to rise and U.S. crude inventory data will arrive later in the day. What We've Been ReadingThis is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morningA triple hitter of positive vaccine news, better-than-expected U.S. economic data and the market-friendly selection of Janet Yellen as Treasury secretary has turned the global equity investor sentiment dial up to eleven. Stocks have climbed to fresh records, cash is pouring into equities most exposed to a strengthening economy and expectations for a volatile end to the year are vanishing even as the pandemic continues to rage. The MSCI AC World Index is on track for its best performing month ever. But there are key holdouts to the equity euphoria. Treasuries have remained relatively resilient with a gauge of the U.S. yield curve — which would be expected to steepen on bullish economic growth expectations — remaining well off its year-to-date high. And there has been a notable lack of anything happening in the haven yen. Of course the specter of the Fed looms over the Treasuries market and fears about the dollar has capped any selloff in the yen. But two of the biggest havens in financial markets are not yet acting like Christmas has come early for risk assets. Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. |
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