| For the first time in at least a decade, the number of new scripted shows released in the U.S. will decline. TV studios had to shut down production all spring and summer due to the coronavirus, and are just now resuming work on scripted series. While streaming services stashed shows months in advance, most linear networks have turned to reruns, movies, reality TV and sports to fill the airwaves. It's easy to dismiss this as a one-time blip due to the coronavirus. TV networks and streaming services can't release new shows when studios can't make them. But it's possible that this could also mark the end of an unprecedented surge in scripted TV production that turned the golden age of TV into peak TV. It's dangerous to make this prediction. John Landgraf, a man far smarter than me, tried to say TV would peak a few years ago. He was wrong. He didn't anticipate that so many tech companies would be willing to light money on fire to boost new streaming services. While those companies are still willing to light money on fire for "marketing," many of the traditional media companies that fueled the initial surge are now cutting back. The first phase of the TV boom came about because cable networks increased their output of scripted shows from 30 in 2002 to more than 180 by 2017. Premium cable networks (HBO, Starz and Showtime) more than doubled their output over that same time period. This strategy made sense when the number of people who paid for TV was growing, and networks could reinvest advertising sales and fees from cable operators into shows that boosted their prestige. The networks often used original programs to secure their position in a cable package, It was easier for Pop to get carried by Comcast when it had "Schitt's Creek." But cable networks are now losing customers, and TV advertising is slipping, prompting their owners to consolidate networks and cut staff. Mergers have also reduced the risk of getting dropped by pay-TV operators. Pop is now part of the same company as CBS and NatGeo is in the same family as ESPN, giving them protection they didn't have before. Cable networks started cutting back on scripted shows a year or two ago, and they are about to trim their slates a whole lot more. Pop, which just won the most Emmys in its history, will now air little more than reruns. The Paramount Network, home of the hit "Yellowstone," is being rebranded the Paramount Movie Network and will stop making long-form series. Comedy Central is getting smaller by the day. That's just at one company, ViacomCBS Inc. A similar fate awaits cable networks owned by Walt Disney Co., Comcast Corp. and AT&T Inc. as those conglomerates invest in streaming. Networks like USA, NatGeo and TNT air a handful of originals right now, but for how long? The future of these brands is online. NatGeo is a tile on Disney+. Shows on TNT and TBS will be HBO Max originals, and shows from USA could debut on Peacock. Even FX, one of the earliest cable networks to make original series, is now producing for Hulu. The only cable networks that need original series are those that don't have a major streaming service to feed (like AMC). Broadcast networks' output has remained pretty steady between 110 shows and 150 shows for the last two decades. But that too is about to change. Ratings have fallen to the point that these networks have to be more judicious about spending, especially with the double-digit drop in TV advertising this year. The cost of sports is soaring, and that remains the top priority. If you need to fill the rest of the prime time hours, unscripted is cheaper and easier to produce (especially during a pandemic). Fox has already announced it plans to focus more on sports and news, and networks like NBC and CBS may soon follow.
The overall volume of new TV will still grow because of investment in new streaming services. How much of that investment goes to scripted programs remains to be seen. Netflix is more focused on international programs, reality TV and movies. What does this mean for the viewer? A bifurcated world where all of your live sports and news are on cable and all your dramas and comedies are on streaming. For a lot of society, that's already the new reality. -- Lucas Shaw The best of Screentime (and other stuff) | 
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