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Turns out good Covid management is good politics and economics

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Today's Agenda

Good Coronavirus Management Is Good Politics 

In too many places around the world, coronavirus policies seem guided not by public health but by economics or, worse, politics. Leaders are loath to restrict people's movements because that tends to make people unhappy and unable to buy stuff. But we keep discovering you can't separate economics and politics from public health. Effective virus control eventually makes voters happier and economies stronger.  

Take New Zealand. By which I mean: Take me and my family to live there, please. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern just won a landslide re-election after snuffing out Covid-19 with early and aggressive action. Covid is so gone over there (for the moment, knock on wood), people are practically licking doorknobs for fun. (It's no Toothbrush Fence, but still.) David Fickling points out Ardern isn't alone in enjoying the political fruits of Covid competence. And leaders who have struggled to handle the virus are suffering politically, including U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and U.S. President Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, China's economy appears to be having one of those fabled V-shaped recoveries, which Dan Moss suggests is a function of the country's ability to crush the virus, despite it apparently originating there. Massive caveats ahoy: China's economic numbers aren't exactly known for reliability, and its command-economy approach isn't replicable or desirable everywhere. Still, its apparently quick rebound stands in contrast to, say, Sweden, which was far less aggressive in fighting Covid (though its tune is changing), experienced higher death rates and still suffered economically, as John Authers has noted. There are no trade-offs. 

Biden's Chance to Play Healer

Trump considers it an insult to say rival Joe Biden will "listen to the scientists" on Covid-19, which says a lot about why he's losing his race for re-election so badly right now. He could still pull out another shocking victory, but with every day that passes, such an upset grows increasingly unlikely, writes Jonathan Bernstein. Apparently Trump's message of Darkness in America (based on language analyzed by Ben Schott) just never really caught on. 

The circumstances of Biden's potential victory give him an opportunity not only to heal the damage Trump has done to American institutions but also to bind together the various sniping factions of the Democratic Party, writes Francis Wilkinson. He could also bind the wounds done to alliances abroad. This includes even Johnson's government, with which Trump has occasionally butted heads despite sharing similar views on foreigners and the like. In fact, though Biden may seem less compatible with Brexiteers than Trump, Martin Ivens writes there is plenty of common ground on which they can bond

Biden's Energy Impact

Another potential paradox of a Biden presidency is that it could also help the oil market, writes Julian Lee. Yes, Biden will favor green energy and be less friendly to Saudi Arabia. But his relatively predictable and pragmatic foreign policy could be a boon to market stability.  

In any event, as Trump has demonstrated with coal, no president can magically revive a dying industry. Fossil fuels will eventually live up to their name in more ways than one, as costs for renewables keep plummeting. They've already fallen dramatically, and now hydrogen technology promises to cut them even more, while helping fill in the gaps of wind and solar, write Peter Orszag and George Bilicic. A Biden presidency would be far more likely to hasten this welcome transition.

Further Planet-Saving Reading: China's carbon-trading program could be more ambitious, but we should all be glad it even exists. — Clara Ferreira Marques 

Telltale Charts

The pandemic has made it difficult for "digital nomads" to leave the country, even as it is producing many more of them, Justin Fox writes. But hey, we hear Boulder is nice this time of year. 

Forget overtaking China's economy. Right now India's not even topping Bangladesh, Andy Mukherjee writes, because it's failing to make the most of its plentiful cheap labor.

Further Reading

Europe's not ready to replace London as a financial hub and shouldn't force the issue. — Bloomberg's editorial board 

The Fed's Randal Quarles just basically admitted the central bank is engaged in infinite QE. — Brian Chappatta 

Amy Coney Barrett has made a strong case for recusing herself from abortion cases. — Noah Feldman 

Seen from an RV touring the Midwest, conversation at least helps with understanding, if not compromise. — Frank Barry 

When the world feels hopeless, it's time for even bigger optimism, and these thinkers deliver it. — Noah Smith 

Music lessons will make your kids happier and possibly smarter. — Mark Gilbert 

ICYMI

Stimulus talks are still just barely alive.

Black homeowners pay more on their mortgages.

China has to recycle 26 million tons of old clothes.

Kickers

Chances are about 50/50 that we live in a simulation. (h/t Ellen Kominers)

Scientists struggle to understand an eight-year-old Twinkie. (h/t Scott Kominers)

The case for using punctuation in Slack.

E.B. White's "Plain Style" turns 75.

Note: Please send Twinkies and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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The U.S. presidential campaign has already been a roller-coaster ride for global investors, and it promises to get even more intense. Join us virtually on Oct. 21 at 1 p.m. Singapore time (GMT+8) to hear how Kathy Matsui, vice chair Goldman Sachs Japan, and Brian Barish, president and CIO of Cambiar Investors, are preparing their portfolios. Register for free here to be part of the conversation or to access all content on-demand at your convenience.

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