| Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. We can say one thing for sure now: If Donald Trump wins the 2020 presidential election, it will be either the biggest October comeback or the biggest polling error in the polling era. With four weeks to go, it's hard to find good news for the president. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads by a bit more than 8 percentage points in national polls. Trump still has a bit of an Electoral College advantage, meaning that if each state moved equally in his direction, he could win the election even if he loses the popular vote. But as of now, the advantage doesn't appear to have grown from 2016, and he's too far behind for it to save him. Polls have him down 6.2 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 7.0 in Michigan and 6.7 in Wisconsin. Those are the three states that gave him the presidency in 2016. Could the polling be wrong? Sure. Is it likely? Not particularly. There are far more surveys in Michigan and Wisconsin this time around, and pollsters think that they've learned their lessons from last time. Also remember: National surveys in 2016 were only off by a small amount, and polling in many states was just fine, as it was for the 2018 elections. So it matters that Trump also seems to be lagging in states such as Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, and Ohio, and perhaps even Iowa and Georgia. That's why forecasting models have Biden as a solid favorite. He has a bit better than a 4 in 5 chance according to FiveThirtyEight, and a nine in 10 chance according to the Economist — in both cases, the strongest position he's been in so far. That certainly doesn't mean it's impossible for Trump to win. Biden has gained some after the first debate (and all the other events of last week); that could prove to be a bubble that will deflate, perhaps if Trump does better next time. Or Trump might find some way to close the gap a bit more at the end of the campaign, as he did in 2016, which could get Biden's lead down enough to allow the president — if he overperforms his polls in just the right places — to pull ahead. There are a bunch of problems with that scenario. The polls have been quite stable this cycle, much more so than in 2016, which makes any big late shifts less likely. Similarly, fewer people are telling pollsters that they're undecided. It's also a problem for Trump that, unlike Hillary Clinton in 2016, Biden is relatively popular, making it less likely that those now supporting him are uneasy with their choice. As for some external event changing things? Trump seems to think that announcing approval for a vaccine would do it. But polling shows that few people other than his strongest supporters trust him on the pandemic. As has been the case throughout Trump's presidency, it's just very difficult to see anything he does as even plausibly appealing to swing voters. Removing his mask semi-dramatically after returning to the White House on Monday and then arguing that people shouldn't let the pandemic dominate their lives? That's just more of the same from him, and it's hard to believe that if it hasn't worked for seven months it will suddenly work in the next few weeks. One more thing: No matter what the Republican spin says, there's no reason to think there are hidden Trump voters out there. It's just as likely that Biden will do better than the polls suggest. Of course, as long as Biden is in the lead, we're going to pay more attention to the (still very real!) possibility that polling error could make it a closer race than it looks. But don't forget that all the maybes and could-bes and last-minute surges could just as easily go in the other direction. 1. Sarah Binder on the Senate's timetable for confirming Amy Coney Barrett. 2. Rick Hasen on the new Supreme Court and voting rights. 3. Todd Makse, Scott Minkoff and Anand Edward Sokhey on lawn signs. 4. John Hudak on the vice-presidential debate. He's probably correct that it's the most important of these ever — but that's a low bar, and vice-presidential debates just aren't very important no matter what. 5. Molly E. Reynolds and Margaret Taylor on recent court decisions and congressional power. 6. John Fortier and Norm Ornstein on the problem with faithless-elector laws if a candidate is no longer active. Hey, state legislators: Fix these (otherwise fine) laws! 7. Michael Waldman and Wendy Weiser on why stealing elections is harder than some think. 8. Kaleigh Rogers on rational fears of Covid-19. 9. And Megan McArdle on anxiety about the pandemic. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. | 
⇉〖OpenLoad〗 2020 Superintelligence Película Completa En Línea released 2020. story: La vida de Carol Peters se trastorna cuando es selecci...
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