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The pandemic has entered a worrisome new phase

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Today's Agenda

Covid's Second (Third? Extended First?) Wave Is Here

When Max Nisen first wrote about this chart back in June, it was scary:

It showed that the U.S. not only failed to contain its first coronavirus wave, but it also let it grow even bigger. But at least you could take some comfort in knowing Europe had its outbreak under control.

Four months later? So much for comfort:

Now we've got a chart of America's ongoing pandemic ineptitude as well as a large and still-gathering second wave in Europe, Max writes. Unfortunately, after seven months of this disaster, people on both sides of the Atlantic are much likelier to chafe at restrictions meant to keep the hospitals from filling up again. 

European authorities are starting to clamp down on activity again. Italy and the U.K. have even gone so far as to encourage citizens to rat each other out for violating new social-distancing rules. As Ferdinando Giugliano writes, such suggestions are unhelpful. They only make people distrust both their governments and their neighbors. Also unhelpful? Having no plan at all, as in the U.S., where many states with the most new cases also have the loosest social-distancing rules, Max writes. It could be a very long winter.

We Still Need That Stimulus, Only More

What might help keep us warm is some more economic stimulus. The worst of the collapse may be over, helped by policy heroics in the spring. But that steroid boost is wearing off in the fall, leaving a deep recession behind. And lawmakers are at odds on doing more. A $1.8 trillion White House proposal is probably just good enough that Nancy Pelosi should take it. But it's also doubtful Senate Republicans will pass it. As Nir Kaissar and Tim O'Brien write, too many in the GOP seem to think the economy doesn't need help. But we're still teetering on the edge of a depression that only fiscal safeguards can prevent. 

Even a stimulus skeptic should be on board with spending more on coronavirus testing and tracing and making sure the knowledge and skills of thousands of small businesses aren't wiped out unnecessarily, writes Tyler Cowen.   

Further Economics Reading:

Parsing Barrett's Non-Answers

Amy Coney Barrett spent a third day diligently not answering questions in the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on her appointment to the Supreme Court. This may be annoying, but Ramesh Ponnuru writes she's just carrying on a long tradition established by Antonin Scalia and Ruth Bader Ginsburg of offering no hint of how she'll rule on cases. 

In a perfect world, Noah Feldman writes, senators would ask, and Barrett would answer, questions about the conflict between her avowed originalism and dedication to following precedent. It was an issue for her mentor Scalia, and it would be interesting to hear her thoughts on the subject. It would also be good to know whether she considers Roe v. Wade a bulletproof "super-precedent" like Brown v. Board of Education or Marbury v. Madison. 

Reading between Barrett's lawyerly lines, though, you can pick up some clues as to her thinking. For example, on several occasions she has declined to offer a full-throated defense of democracy, writes Frank Wilkinson, suggesting she'll be friendly to any Republican efforts to entrench minority power, possibly as soon as the upcoming election. 

Telltale Charts

SoftBank's hot new thing is Opendoor, which flips houses and is about to be taken public by a SPAC. But Chris Bryant warns it's already wildly overvalued, with revenue crimped for the next couple of years and profitability a distant dream. 

Higher H-1B visa wages will attract higher-value tech workers, which will in turn attract higher-value tech employers, writes Noah Smith. Wins all around.

Further Reading

Kudos to China for setting ambitious new climate goals. But it must dramatically change its behavior to meet them. — Bloomberg's editorial board 

China's new five-year plan aims right at key U.S. industries of high tech and green tech. — Anjani Trivedi 

Foxconn needs to admit it hasn't lived up to its promises in Wisconsin. — Tim Culpan 

Jane Fraser's top priority will be fixing Citi's woeful internal controls and risk management. — Elisa Martinuzzi 

Goldman Sachs keeps finding new ways to make money. — Brian Chappatta 

The Pentagon's wish for a 500-ship Navy is too much for the budget to bear. — James Stavridis 

Russia's mysterious Kamchatka sea-life die-off is the latest sign it must take climate risks seriously. — Clara Ferreira Marques 

ICYMI

Senate Republicans are starting to turn on Trump.

The U.K. isn't giving up on Brexit talks just yet.

Countries are hoarding food as prices rise.

Kominers's Conundrums Hint

If you're still thinking about that fly at the vice presidential debate, don't forget to consider how both candidates will react to the moderator's announcement, and how those reactions influence what the candidates do next. If and when one candidate blushes, that actually reveals a bit of information to the other candidate about what the first one has (or has not) seen. — Scott Duke Kominers

Kickers

Wind power's future may be in deep water.

Room-temperature superconductivity achieved for the first time.

Millions of old Usenet posts are now available online.

Netflix keeps canceling shows too soon.

Note: Please send food and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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