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How will Democrats deal with the new court?

Early Returns
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Amy Coney Barrett is now a Supreme Court justice, which she celebrated by appearing at what for all practical purposes was a campaign rally for President Donald Trump at the White House. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has now completed the process of transforming a solid conservative majority on the court into an intensely partisan supermajority. 

Democrats may soon have the option of doing something about it if former Vice President Joe Biden is elected and the party emerges with House and Senate majorities — hardly a sure thing, but somewhat more likely than not at this point. Whether it's this January or later, though, Democrats will presumably be in control of a unified government again one day, and the same basic questions will apply.

What's worth pointing out now is that there are two very separate issues for Democrats.

One is what they might call fairness. Democrats think it was fundamentally wrong — constitutional, but wrong — for Republicans to blockade a Supreme Court vacancy in 2016 on the stated basis that it was improper for the Senate to consider a nomination during an election year, only to completely change course in 2020. They would add other considerations, but that's the core one, the one that not only has activists upset but has even turned normally cautious senators into revenge-seeking partisans.

Of course, it's not simply about revenge. In a system of separated institutions sharing powers, courts affect public policy. More Republican-appointed, strongly conservative justices means that policy will likely shift in ways that Republicans support. (Yes, courts aren't exactly like legislatures, and judges don't make straightforward policy decisions the way politicians do. But there's no point in pretending that judges have neutral or entirely unpredictable effects.)

Still, my best guess is that it'll be an uphill battle for Democrats, even with unified government, to do much about this. I doubt (for example) that they'd end the filibuster simply to pass a law adding seats to the court. And even if the filibuster is at risk for other reasons, I suspect that it would take a fairly large majority in both chambers for the party to have enough votes to move ahead.

That raises the second issue. It's quite possible that the new Supreme Court will be so radical that Democrats may come to think it's an obstacle to governing at all. If the court eliminates the Affordable Care Act, or a future climate law, or basic voting rights? If it destroys the ability of the executive branch to function as it's done since (at least) the New Deal? Then even moderate Democrats may think they have no choice but to respond. That, after all, was what drove President Franklin Roosevelt to his court-packing scheme. Not single issues, but the basic ability of Congress, the president and the executive branch to make policy.

No one can say whether the court will in fact end up being radicalized in this way. And of course we still don't know how Democrats will do in next week's elections. Biden could still lose despite the current polling, and Democrats could wind up with anywhere from 47 to 58 senators. But if they do have a good election night, they're going to have to figure out exactly what kind of obstacle the court will be.

1. Must-read: the latest report from Bright Line Watch about dangers to U.S. democracy

2. Rick Hasen on the Supreme Court's disturbing decision in a Wisconsin voting case.

3. Sean Trende is right: Using early voting to predict election results is almost always a bad idea

4. Norm Ornstein on a potential Biden agenda

5. Dana El Kurd at the Monkey Cage on public opinion among Arabs about peace with Israel

6. Marin K. Levy on Republican court-packing.

7. Jay Shambaugh on interpreting third-quarter growth numbers.

8. And Marc Ambinder has some advice for getting through the next week

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