Header Ads

Ending Covid-19 by letting everybody catch it is a terrible idea

Bloomberg Opinion Today
Bloomberg

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a herd of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here.

Today's Agenda

The Not-Great Barrington Declaration

The Great Barrington Declaration sounds like a very important and historical document, like it's dividing up the post-war Middle East or getting the global economy off the gold standard or something. But in fact it's just three dudes declaring we should let coronavirus have its way with us. Unfortunately people in high places are taking it seriously.

Those include President Donald Trump and the people around him at the White House. They've given up trying to fight the virus, even as it surges anew, so the GBD suits this approach quite nicely. Never mind that hordes of scientists, including the government's own Anthony Fauci, have called it "nonsense," "scientifically and ethically problematic" and a "dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence." It claims a libertarian worldview, but known libertarian Tyler Cowen is going with the scientists on this one. He points out several of the GBD's flaws, including its apparent presumptions that we're all still being forced to hunker indoors (we're not) and that we'll never get a vaccine (we will, and possibly soon). "To allow large numbers of people today to die of Covid, in wealthy countries, is akin to charging the hill and taking casualties two days before the end of World War I," Tyler writes.

The GBD also splits humanity into two groups: the "diers," in Trump's infamous language, and everyone else. All we have to do is keep the old and infirm locked away while the rest of us live our old-normal lives, and we'll have herd immunity in a jiffy, according to this thinking. One huge problem with this, Therese Raphael writes, is that healthy people are getting "long Covid," or debilitating symptoms lasting weeks or months. Attaining herd immunity the GBD way would not only kill millions, but it also would submit millions more to prolonged illnesses, further wrecking the quality of life and economy the authors say they want to save. 

Further Coronavirus Reading: To distribute many doses of mRNA-based vaccines, we'll need stable mRNA. Thousands are trying to solve this puzzle by playing an online game. — Rhiju Das and Martin Skladany 

Life Is a Pre-Existing Condition 

One other problem with letting everyone catch coronavirus is that it would leave many people with pre-existing health conditions, just when protection for those conditions under the Affordable Care Act may be about to disappear. Sure, Trump and Republicans keep saying they'll protect those people. But they never say how they'll do this, notes Bloomberg's editorial board, even as they get closer and closer to killing the ACA in court.  

And health isn't the only kind of pre-existing condition for which Americans can be punished, writes Cathy O'Neil. Too often companies use data such as our race, gender, addresses, criminal records and more to penalize us or deny us opportunities. The economic devastation of this pandemic will expose many more people to this treatment, making it a good time to end it.

Previewing a Biden Presidency

Election Day is now 19 days away, or one (1) eternity (Zeno's Election Paradox, as Kai Ryssdal put it). Joe Biden still has a 10-point national polling edge on Trump and significant leads in the big swing states (including Georgia???). At the risk of mistaking eggs for chickens, it's not too soon to start thinking about what a Biden presidency might look like. 

For one thing, we can probably kiss the filibuster goodbye if Democrats take the Senate when Biden takes the White House, writes Jonathan Bernstein. Senate Republicans are making it inevitable: Barring a miraculous last-minute conversion, they won't be passing any economic stimulus before Inauguration Day. That means Biden and the Dems will probably inherit an economic disaster. Few things could inspire them to nuke the filibuster like a stalled stimulus package at the cliff's edge of a depression.  

We can also expect Biden to start repairing America's relationships with the allies Trump berated and insulted for years, which will start restoring America's influence in the world. Trump shoved U.S. soft power in a pickle barrel and set it on fire, but many other presidents have done similar damage, writes Hal Brands. America's strengths are in its system and its values, and they've always helped rebuild its reputation.

On the downside, it seems unlikely anybody from the Trump administration will ever face repercussions for its barbaric policy of stripping children from parents at the border, writes Frank Wilkinson. This amounted to torture, and its agents should never be allowed to forget it. Unfortunately, too many of us already have.   

Telltale Charts

The upside of central-bank largesse is that it makes every market rise. The downside is that when everything moves in the same direction, then there are no safe havens anymore, writes Alberto Gallo. He has some tips on how to deal with that.  

Further Reading

Fenway Sports Group is smart to use a SPAC to cash in on Liverpool's (very annoying) soccer success. — Alex Webb 

Germany is highly competent but also too rigid to be daring. — Andreas Kluth 

ICYMI

Two Kamala Harris staffers tested positive for Covid. 

Almost 2,000 Robinhood accounts were hacked

Because I refinanced three months ago, mortgage rates keep hitting record lows.

Kickers

Climate change may have driven early human species to extinction

Scientists discover a new species of tiny Triassic reptile.

Our lust for tech has created a hellpit of a lake in Mongolia.

Every episode of "Curb Your Enthusiasm," ranked.

Note: Please send loan commitments and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

 

Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.

 

No comments