| Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Two weeks ago, it was obvious that the coronavirus relief-and-stimulus bill was dead until after the election, but that for whatever reason it was being propped up. A lot of on-and-off negotiations later, we're in the endgame, and it's fairly clear what each of the three players is up to. Well, at least two of them anyway. House Democrats wanted to pass a large bill — indeed, they did pass a large one back in April, and seemed willing to negotiate a compromise with the less-interested Senate. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi even publicly declared that she'd accept far less than what the bill called for. It certainly appeared that Democrats were more interested in helping their constituents than in preventing President Donald Trump from getting credit for a deal. As the election has gotten closer, it's not clear if that calculation has changed. Giving Trump positive headlines within two weeks of the vote certainly isn't in the Democrats' interest, and at this point delaying economic aid until afterward is a fairly small cost. Especially since it's unclear if a deal is available in any event. At the same time, passing a bill is extremely popular, the Democrats don't want the blame for inaction and they'll likely stay at the bargaining table as long as someone else is willing to show up. Meanwhile, it's still unclear why Senate Republicans have been so cool to further stimulus. My best guess is that many of them simply don't think government spending would help the economy, and that the rest are unwilling to reach a deal that would leave them vulnerable to attacks as insufficiently conservative. Also, they don't trust Trump to cover for them. That's consistent with what the Washington Post's Jeff Stein and Erica Werner reported on Tuesday. Still, with quite a few senators in immediate danger of defeat, Republicans don't want the blame for sinking the bill either. So Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has held votes on something resembling a stimulus bill, knowing that Democrats would defeat it by filibuster and he could blame them. Then there's the president. On the one hand, he's been highly inconsistent. On the other, he currently seems to want a deal — and surely it's in his interests to get a signing ceremony, even if it's too late for people to receive the benefits before the election. The problem is that Trump as usual has been outmaneuvered by Senate Republicans, who have now apparently instructed the president's negotiators not to come to an agreement (with the specious excuse that Pelosi isn't negotiating in good faith — if that were true, then McConnell wouldn't have had anything to worry about!). Trump certainly could fight this one out. He could reach a deal with Pelosi and try to pressure Senate Republicans to push it through. But this episode demonstrates yet again just how little clout he has with his own party in Congress — and that he still, almost four years in, doesn't know the first thing about how to wield what influence he has. Perhaps he'll resort to simply claiming that he's secured a great deal, just as he claims to have eliminated Obamacare, slashed prescription medicine prices and built a border wall that Mexico paid for. At any rate, there's no incentive for Trump to end negotiations. And so, with no one willing to take the blame for failure, everyone has continued to prop the bill up and pretend it's alive. Every once in a while, that kind of shadow boxing ends with something actually passing because no one is willing to be the one who kills it. But at least until the election, it certainly doesn't look like that's going to happen this time. 1. Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan on the divide between those who pay attention to politics and those who don't. 2. Charles Stewart III on election fraud, the courts and the election. 3. Sean Trende has the case for a large Biden win. Plausible! 4. Emily M. Farris and Mirya R. Holman on voting in local elections. 5. Meredith Conroy, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Erin Cassese on Trump and suburban women. 6. Bloomberg's Jennifer Epstein and Tyler Pager on Ron Klain as a top candidate for White House chief of staff. Certainly seems like the logical choice. 7. And my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Noah Smith on aging and world economies. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. | 
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